Jerome Stakes 2022: Odds and analysis

The road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby reopens on Saturday, New Year’s Day, with three qualifying races across the country. At Aqueduct, the $150,000 Jerome brings the Derby trail back to New York. Run as a one-turn mile, the Jerome drew a field of eight who will turn 3 when their racing birthdays happen on Jan. 1.

Although recently the Jerome has not had any significant impact in the running of the Run for the Roses, three of the last four winners went on to record victories in graded stakes and accrue significant career earnings – Firenze Fire in 2018, Mind Control in 2019 and Independence Hall in 2020.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Jerome, with odds provided by the Horse Racing Nation staff. The Jerome is carded as the eighth race with post time scheduled for 3:50 p.m. EST. 

1. Cooke Creek (2-1 – Uncle Mo – Jeremiah O’Dwyer / Manny Franco– 3: 2-1-0 - $82,800) Cooke Creek began his career with two victories at Delaware Park for trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer and Cheyenne Stables. His maiden breaker was a sprint, but he came right back in an October listed stake going a two-turn mile. The son of Uncle Mo ran second in the Nashua (G3) at Belmont Park in a one-turn mile behind the Bob Baffert runner Rockefeller, who won that race on the lead. In all three races, Cooke Creek rallied from a stalking position. That running style and his stakes experience should serve him well in the Jerome. The one to beat.

2. Unbridled Bomber (10-1 – Upstart – Jimmy Ryerson / Dylan Davis – 4: 1-0-0 - $61,500) Unbridled Bomber broke his maiden in his fourth try at Belmont Park when he rallied from last to win by a neck in a field of seven at odds of 10-1 after previous races at Saratoga and Belmont. Toss.

3. Ohtwoohthreefive (8-1 – Union Rags – George Weaver / Kendrick Carmouche – 6: 1-2-2 - $104,500) This son of Union Rags will make his first start on the dirt in the Jerome. On the turf, he needed four tries to break his maiden at Belmont going a mile. He was then fifth in the Awad and most recently missed winning the Central Park at Aqueduct by a nose after having the lead. Clearly, distance will not be a factor, and his sire was a classic winner on the dirt. Threat if he likes the dirt.

4. Rumble Strip Ron (15-1 – Klimt – Anthony Quartarolo / Eric Cancel – 8: 2-2-1 - $98,515) Rumble Strip Ron is the most experienced horse in this field, with eight starts. His first four races were at Thistledown during the summer against state-breds. He left Ohio to race in Kentucky, once on the grass at Kentucky Downs and then winning a $40,000 open claimer at Churchill Downs. Most recently, he was second for a $50,000 tag. The son of Klimt also hit the board in a pair of Ohio-bred stakes. He will ship to Aqueduct from Kentucky for owner Ron Paolucci, who is often willing to take a shot in big races. The Jerome represents a significant class challenge. Toss.

5. Smarten Up (9-2 – American Freedom – Alfredo Velazquez / Anthony Salgado – 3: 1-1-1 - $45,820) This Florida-bred will ship to New York City from Parx Racing, where he made all three of his starts. He was second in his debut in September at odds of 17-1 where he rallied from 10th going seven furlongs. Stretching out to a mile, Smarten Up pressed the pace and was third, this time as the favorite. In his third try, he beat a field of seven to break his maiden by nine lengths after taking control of the race early while going two turns. Toss.

6. Courvoisier (5-1 – Tapit – Kelly Breen / Dylan Davis – 4: 1-2-1 - $64,950) This chestnut son of Tapit needed four tries to break his maiden, which happened in his only start at the Big A last month when he won by a neck going nine furlongs. Courvoisier was the favorite in his first three starts, beginning with a third at Monmouth Park and then a pair of seconds at Delaware Park while stretching out to two-turn races. He has been training in New York for Kelly Breen since the barns closed at the Jersey Shore track. Trifecta finish possible.

7. Mr Jefferson (8-1 – Constitution – Michael Trombetta / Kendrick Carmouche – 5: 2-0-0 - $80,520) Mr Jefferson will make his second start on the Kentucky Derby trail for Fair Hills-based trainer Michael Trombetta after picking up one Derby point in a very competitive edition of the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct. The Maryland-bred began his career in a restricted stake on the turf at Colonial Downs as the 2-1 favorite where he finished ninth. Three weeks later he moved to the dirt and broke his maiden by two lengths. The son of Constitution stretched out in his next two starts at Laurel in a pair of allowance races. After another turf try, blinkers went on and he won on the main track, which led him to the Remsen. Also, Trombetta won the Jerome in 2020 with Independence Hall. Use underneath.

8. Hagler (4-1 – Tapiture – Rudy Rodriguez / Jorge Vargas, Jr. – 3: 2-1-0 - $112,600) This Florida-bred was second in his first start at Belmont in May at odds of 1.70-1. He came back from a five-month layoff to break his maiden by more than four lengths. About three weeks ago, Hagler stretched out to seven furlongs and won an allowance on the front end as an odds-on favorite. He is the leading money winner in the field. The stretch out to the one-turn mile and the step up to stakes company seem like an ideal progression. Top choice.

Summary: The field for the Jerome has only one stakes winner, Cooke Creek, and that makes him the horse to beat. Ohtwoohthreefive just missed a stakes win and has a solid record, but he has only raced on the turf. Mr Jefferson is an allowance winner who faced a tough field in the Remsen.

Hagler ran well in all three of his starts for Rudy Rodriguez, who is always dangerous at Aqueduct in the winter. The son of Tapiture was well liked in his debut and showed plenty of speed in his races, especially the recent allowance victory going seven furlongs. Hagler certainly fits in the one-turn mile and is the top choice to upset the favorite and win the Jerome.