Jerome Stakes 2020: Odds and analysis for Wednesday's race

The road to the 2020 Kentucky Derby kicks off on New Year’s Day at Aqueduct with the running of the $150,000 Jerome Stakes for Thoroughbreds who officially turn 3 at midnight on Jan. 1.

Independence Hall returns to the Big A, where in November he won the Nashua (G3) in a romp and immediately became one of the early favorites for the Run for the Roses. The son of Constitution will face six rivals as he looks to secure his first Derby qualifying points distributed on a 10-4-2-1 basis to the Top 4 finishers.

The Jerome is slated as Race 7 out of 8 with post time scheduled for 3:55 p.m. ET. Here's an introduction to field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation:

Prince of Pharoahs [ML 12-1 – American Pharoah – L. Rice/K. Carmouche – 2: 1-0-0 - $34,410] This New York-bred scored against his state-bred peers last time in maiden special weight company. The son of 2019's top first-crop sire made his debut on the grass but then got his victory going a one-turn mile at Belmont Park. The Linda Rice barn is winning races in bunches at the current Aqueduct meeting. Use underneath.
 

Inside Risk [ML 15-1 – Street Sense – T. Morley/R. Gutierrez – 3: 1-0-0 - $39,406] Trainer Tom Morley claimed this son of Street Sense out of his Saratoga debut victory for $50,000 from Todd Pletcher and the owner/breeder Mike Repole. Since then, Morley sent him to run sixth in the Hopeful (G1) and then ninth in the Grey (G3) on Woodbine's synthetic surface. At least he has some stakes experience, which is more than you can say for most of this field. He returns here as a first-time gelding. Use underneath.

Independence Hall [ML 1-5 – Constitution – M. Trombetta/J. Ortiz – 2: 2-0-0 - $127,500] The son of red-hot freshman sire Constitution bursts onto the Kentucky Derby trail after his 12 1/4-length victory in the Nashua, which earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, highest for any 2-year-old in 2019.

It made a private purchase out of Independence Hall's debut victory at Parx Racing look wise for new connections Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Twin Creeks Racing, who join original owners Robert and Kathleen Verratti in campaigning the colt. Since the Nashua, Independence Hall was bet down to 13-1 in Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager and sits at 8-1 at William Hill's sports book.

The time off gave the dark bay colt plenty of time to recover from a big effort, which should satisfy handicappers who worry about the “bounce” happening. The Jerome will be run at the same course and distance as his last, making him the one to beat. Top Choice.

Dubai Bobby [ML 30-1 – Shanghai Bobby – C. Summers/ L. R. Castro – 4: 1-0-1 - $33,440] This gelding was claimed out of his maiden win in a turf sprint at Belmont Park by trainer Chad Summers of Mind Your Biscuits fame for $40,000. He came back in an allowance race going long on the turf at Aqueduct but had a troubled start. Toss.
 

Polar Bear Pete [ML 10-1 – Broken Vow – E. Barker/D. Davis – 2: 1-0-1 - $37,600] Here is another winner of a maiden claiming race. This colt scored on debut by more than five lengths over a sloppy track at Belmont going six and a half furlongs. Trainer Eddie Barker brought him back at seven furlongs to run third in an allowance race which was won by the highly regarded Three Technique. Use underneath.

Celtic Striker [ML 30-1 – Congrats – Ray Handal/H. Hernandez – 2: 1-1-0 - $38,000] Celtic Striker will face winners for the first since he broke his maiden at Monmouth Park while sprinting on the front end on a sloppy racetrack. Now, the Ray Handal runner will stretch out to a mile. Toss.

Bourbon Bay [ML 15-1 – Bayern – M. Hennig/J. Lezcano – 2: 1-1-0 - $46,500] This New York-bred was the favorite in both of his starts against state-breds and had trouble at the start both times. He broke his maiden just a month ago when he edged clear in a six-furlong sprint at Aqueduct. Use underneath.

Summary: Independence Hall lays over this field in every possible way which makes the handicapping challenge to figure out who might fill out the exacta and trifecta. That is no easy task with the rest of the field having only maiden victories in their past performances.

Polar Bear Pete has a third in an allowance going the mile distance. Prince of Pharoahs showed speed and drew off in his eight-furlong maiden score. Inside Risk should find the competition aside from Independence Hall more to his liking than the competition in the graded stakes. Finally, Bourbon Bay gets some respect from all of the support he received at the windows in his two races.