Jerkens fair odds: Patch Adams is cagey single in multi-race bets
The Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial on Saturday at Saratoga is essential for multi-race players, as it is involved in the Pick 6, a trio of Pick 5s and starts the Pick 4 that ends with the Travers Stakes (G1).
Given that Sovereignty is 2-5 on David Aragona's morning line for the big one, a lot of those multi-race wagers will involve treating Sovereignty as a free square. I'm not as sold on that, so I like the idea of singling in the Jerkens to try to get live to some rainmaking moonshots in the Travers.
Patch Adams is a worthy single. He is consistently the fastest horse of this group, and although some think the rail is an impediment here, it's not.
Of course, I have no interest in catching the first or second choice here only to end with Sovereignty, so I'm hoping leaning on Patch Adams gives me some looks to the likes of Magnitude, Strategic Focus and even Bracket Buster in the Travers.
Patch Adams and Chancer McPatrick are the only two entrants who have earned a triple-digit Brisnet late-pace rating in a one-turn race, and Patch Adams has done it while going much faster early. I guess if you hate the rail then you fear him finding room late. But there should be plenty of fading speed here and from the rail jockey Luis Saez does not have to worry about engaging too early while still having position to "go" if a leader looks to be getting away from the pack.
From a long-shot perspective in the Jerkens, Midland Money or Madaket Road from the barn of Bob Baffert or Smoken Wicked for trainer Dallas Stewart each intrigue me if the price is right.
As an aside, a trainer bet on this race would be fun for the sports bettors. I'd price it as such with a ~10% hold.
Which trainer will win the Jerkens?
- Baffert +185
- Cox +115
- FIELD +250