Fair odds: Favorite offers betting value in the Jerkens

The connections of Book'em Danno were between the Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes on Friday at Charles Town Races and the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens on Saturday at Saratoga.

And although the value of both races is the same, with a $500,000 total purse, fans of the New Jersey-bred Bucchero gelding have to be happy with the plan to race at Saratoga as that spot figures to be much more lucrative for bettors.

Book'em Danno is the morning-line favorite of both races: 7-5 in the Hilton and 7-2 in the Jerkens. He towered over nine rivals who could start in the Hilton and might have been odds-on there. He's not as imposing in the Jerkens, but I do see him as the most likely winner with a strong sense for likely value given the presence of the Bob Baffert-trained Prince of Monaco and Brad Cox-trained Timberlake on the cutback.

As for Book'em Danno, it's just hard to knock anything he's done, period. He's 2-for-2 at this distance lifetime, and his only loss this year is when a game second behind eventual UAE Derby (G2) winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Forever Young going a mile in Saudi Arabia. 

All that said, there is a minor danger in the horse that came within a nose of Book'em Danno last time while getting two pounds, and this time the differential is six after joining the barn of Mark Casse. He is also the only E type in the race using Brisnet's pace designations, and while I doubt he'll be lone speed per se, he figures to make things interesting on the front end at a big price.

As always, the board will dictate how I bet this race. I feel so strongly about the Jersey Shore as a key race here I'm thinking of going for a big score using Little Ni in equal strength with Book'em Danno and gambling a bit on some prices with them. Timberlake is the horse I want the absolute least to do with. He is a certain underlay.