Jenny Wiley fair odds: Pace makes race for In Italian

Whether you think In Italian or With the Moonlight is the more likely winner of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley on Saturday at Keeneland might be the only handicapping you need to do from a wagering standpoint.

In Italian is 7-5 on the morning line with With the Moonlight the 5-2 second choice. I think they'll be a little closer than that in actual price, though, giving me some hope that In Italian will be worth a bet to take this field gate to wire.

Given my price on With the Moonlight, she is a certain underlay to me, but if you like her then you're almost certain to get the right price.

So can In Italian lead them all the way like she did four times last year including at Keeneland in the First Lady Stakes, that at a mile versus this 1 1/16 miles, and like she almost did in the 1 3/16 miles Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf? 

Using Brisnet Pace Ratings, it appears she has a significant edge in the front end department. With the Moonlight raced in North America three times last year and ran well when close to the pace, but her figures are still lengths behind what In Italian is capable of. That has me leaning toward In Italian.

The only other intriguing horse is No. 3 Queen Goddess, who at 4-1 on my line is even with the morning line but given I think the top two choices will take more money together than the morning line indicates, Queen Goddess could drift. If I don't get my price on In Italian, she'd be the play albeit at a smaller confidence level.