Jeff Ruby fair odds: Go outside for Derby prep's best bets

Given how well Chip Honcho ran in the Grade 2 Risen Star, second to Kentucky Derby favorite Paladin, after laying an egg in the Lecomte (G3), I am empowered to bet my Lecomte pick Stop the Car in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on Saturday at Turfway Park.

I very much doubt we'll get the 20-1 morning line on this Maximum Security colt, but as you can see from the fair odds above, we don't need close to that number to make Stop the Car worth a bet.

The far outside post of 12 entrants might scare away some people, but posts 10-12 are 4-for-46 going 1 1/8 miles at Turfway Park compared to 1-for-48 for posts 1-2. Yes, that's a small and inactionable sample size, but there is still comfort in knowing it's been done.

There is not a lot of speed in this edition of the Jeff Ruby, which should benefit both Stop the Car and our most likely winner Stark Contrast immediately to his inside. Stop the Car chased a fast pace when wide from post 9 in the Lecomte, but things should not be as spirited here. A better position after a longer run into the turn, and he can improve off that effort.

Stark Contrast is the horse to beat. His connections, Michael McCarthy training for Amerman Racing, won this race in 2024 with Flawlessly. Synthetic and distance are both questions for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up, but his class against this group is clear given the Grade 1 placing.

Argos won the Summer (G1) by a length over Two Out Hero, but that race is not nearly as impressive as Stark Contrast's Breeders' Cup, and both figure to be overbet.

Full Effort is Argos's uncoupled stablemate from the barn of trainer Brad Cox. He makes a lot of sense off a pair of runner-up efforts at Turfway, but he will be looking to make a big closing run. And at the short price I'm expecting, I prefer both Stark Contrast and Stop the Car getting the jump on him.