Jeff Ruby Steaks 2020: Odds and analysis for Saturday's race

As straightforward as this sounds, the main key to finding the winner of Saturday's Grade 3, $250,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park is spotting horses with successful synthetic or turf experience. In most cases, the winner has won on Turfway’s Polytrack or shipped in after competing on turf. Dirt horses taking a shot tend to struggle.

In this case, the standout is a local horse named Invader who has dominated in his two local starts. He also owns high speed figures, at least relative to the competition he faces. With a moderate pace lined up as well, he is tough to beat in this 2020 Kentucky Derby prep, which offers points on a 20-8-4-2 scale to its top-four finishers.

The Jeff Ruby Steaks is carded as Race 11 with a post time of 6:42 p.m. Here's a look at the field with projected morning line odds by Horse Racing Nation.

RELATED: Free past performances

1. Dack Janiel’s, 20-1 (Tonalist – Jack Sisterson/Rafael Bejarano – 4: 1-0-1): Given he ran third in a maiden claimer at Fair Grounds only two starts ago, it is hard to back him. With only a few exceptions, good horses aren't given up with a tag. Dack Janiel’s did rebound in a maiden special weight flight afterwards, but it came in an off-the-turf race, which makes for a softer spot. Toss.

2. Toma Todo, 12-1 (English Channel – Steven Asmussen/Alan Garcia – 4: 1-1-2): Midnight Bisou fans will recognize the Asmussen/Bloom Racing Stable combination. But this colt is questionable at nine furlongs. While he closed for third in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial, notice that he lost ground to Invader in the stretch and finished 10 ¼ lengths behind. In the Texas Turf Mile at Lone Star Park, Toma Toda did mount a nice bid but failed to sustain it late and lost by 3 ½ lengths. Perhaps all it takes is more seasoning to handle extra ground. But he needs to prove it. Toss.

3. Fancy Liquor, 20-1 (Lookin at Lucky – Michael Maker/Florent Geroux – 1: 1-0-0): Generally, the competition is strong at Gulfstream, which makes those horses a constant threat in this race. At one point, Gulfstream shippers completely dominated the Jeff Ruby, winning every edition from 2010 to 2015. The angle has cooled off recently, though. Also, this colt lacks experience with only maiden start. While he could step forward against winners, the experienced runners are more attractive. Toss.

4. Unthrottled, 10-1 (The Big Beast – Dallas Stewart/Corey Lanerie – 7: 1-0-2): When Stewart enters a longshot in a big race, it is hard to discount him from the superfecta. His price player this time shows two nine-furlong races in his last two starts. In his most recent attempt in a Fair Grounds dirt optional claimer, he faded to fifth after chasing a moderate pace. But two races ago on turf, he did break his maiden at this distance from a closing position. The fact that Unthrottled’s better race came on the lawn is a great sign, as synthetic tends to favor grass horses. Use underneath.

5. Myamanoi, 15-1 (Temple City – Danny Gargan/Kendrick Carmouche – 3: 1-0-0): This son of Temple City packs a punch in the lane, closing from 10 ½ lengths behind in the Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream to only lose by ¾ of a length. As stated earlier, Gulfstream shippers once enjoyed a long winning streak in this race. Given the top four finished in a pack, the strength of the Dania Beach group is unclear. But on the positive side, those blanket finishes are more acceptable on turf due to the nature of the surface. He will also offer some value given his lower-profile connections and could spice up the exotics with a late bid. Use underneath.

6. Halo Again, 8-1 (Speightstown – Steven Asmussen/Rafael Hernandez – 3: 2-0-0): Two months after taking the Coronation Futurity at Woodbine in a gritty effort, he failed to duplicate that performance on dirt with a disappointing eighth in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). Toss out the dirt effort, as he probably does not like it. The connections wisely chose to aim for a synthetic race again, which means he could move forward on the switch back. For what it is worth, Turfway uses Polytrack while Woodbine races run on Tapeta. Not all horses handle both synthetics. Also, he only won the Coronation by a head in a blanket finish and faces stronger competition in this spot. Regardless, he is one to consider at a price. Live longshot.

7. Victory Boulevard, 30-1 (Dialed In – Michael Maker/Gerardo Corrales – 5: 3-2-0): On the plus side, he has won three races in a row. But those victories came in a maiden claimer, claimer and starter optional claimer. The connections may have contracted some Derby fever and decided to throw him to the wolves. While his consistent overall record is respected, the class doesn't look to be there. Toss.

8. Finnick the Fierce, 7/2 (Dialed In – Rey Hernandez/Sonny Leon – 5: 1-1-0): This one-eyed horse followed up his strong runner-up finish to Silver Prospector in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) with a fourth-place finish in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and a disappointing seventh in the weaker division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Perhaps the latter effort deserves a pass, as he endured a hard trip after hitting the gate, getting bumped at the start and running wide. Remember, this closer finished ahead of Tiz the Law in the Kentucky Jockey Club, although the current division leader was a bit green at that point. He could rebound. Win contender.

9. Austrian, 50-1 (Freud – Jose Fernandez/Abel Lezcano – 5: 1-0-0): With only a win in a local maiden claimer to his credit, it is hard to imagine why the connections want to try this spot. His previous races include four losses in a row at Saratoga, Churchill Downs and Keeneland. Three of those defeats came in maiden claimers. Derby fever is real and draws in horses such as this one. Toss.

10. The Stiff, 12-1 (Danza – Michael McCarthy/Geovanni Franco – 8: 2-0-1): With some exceptions, Golden Gate Fields shippers do not hold a great record here. This one only could manage a flat fifth in the El Camino Real Derby, and this spot looks tougher class-wise. The winner in that race, Azul Coast, is likely one of the weaker Bob Baffert-trained 3-year-olds, several lengths behind the best in his stable. As for The Stiff, expect a dull closing bid to finish around midpack. Toss.

11. Invader, 2-1 (War Front – Wesley Ward/Albin Jimenez – 6: 2-0-1): Since coming to Turfway, this son of War Front has woken up with two strong efforts. On Dec. 4, he broke his maiden by 12 ¾ lengths and then followed it up with a 6 ¼-length victory in the John Battaglia Memorial two months later. He earned a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure in the latter race. His game is showing speed, but Jimenez knows how to rate him enough to reserve energy. As a grandson of Riskaverse, the nine-furlong distance is probably not an issue. The pick.

12. Field Pass, 10-1 (Lemon Drop Kid – Michael Maker/Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 2-2-0): As explained earlier, Gulfstream shippers are normally strong contenders in this race. This horse won the Dania Beach, but it is unclear if he is that talented. Notice that he lost four straight times before the Dania Beach. But his turf efforts in the With Anticipation Stakes (G3) and Bourbon Stakes (G3) are OK, as he finished second and fourth in those two races. He is usable in exotics. Use underneath.

Conclusion: Invader looks like he found his home on Turfway's synthetic. Given the Gulfstream shippers appear moderate this year and the rest of the field shows question marks, Invader is probable to control the pace and coast home to another big victory.

If looking for a B contender on tickets, Finnick the Fierce is the best candidate. But without the expected entry of Nucky, the pace is likely moderate at best and may hurt him.

Suggested play: trifecta 11 / 4,5,6,8,12 / 4,5,6,8,12