Jeff Ruby Steaks 2019: Odds and analysis

But with this edition of the Grade 3, $200,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks at nine furlongs comes a few changes. First of all, it falls earlier in the calendar than in previous years. Plus, it only awards 20 Derby qualifying points this go around, as the emphasis shifts further to dirt preps.

That amount of points alone will likely fall short of qualifying Saturday’s winner. Nevertheless, a 3-year-old can win in this spot and compete in one of the final prep races a few weeks later for the extra points required. 

Somelikeithotbrown, who won the local John Battaglia Memorial, headlines the field, but he faces an interesting challenger in Skywire, who won his only two starts. 

The race is carded as Race 11 of 12 with post time set for 6:37 p.m. ET. Here’s a look at the field with the official morning line: 

1. Dynamic Racer, 12-1 (Run Away and Hide – Ronald Kahles/Euclyn Prentice Jr. – 6: 2-2-0): The runner-up in the Battaglia Memorial, this race’s local prep, ran respectably. On the lead, he initially took pressure from longshot Maya Solomea before putting that foe away on the turn and facing the class-proven Somelikeithotbrown. Even though he lost, he gave a good account of himself. Board hitter.

2. Moonster, 20-1 (Malibu Moon – Dale Romans/John McKee – 7: 1-0-1): Without any synthetic or turf starts, this is a tough read. But his eighth-place finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and 10th in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hint he does not quite belong as this level. Moonster’s maiden win is notable, as it included Plus Que Parfait. Given that was in September, it feels like ages ago. Toss.

3. Five Star General, 6-1 (Distorted Humor – Arnaud Delacour/Declan Cannon – 4: 2-0-0): While this colt lacks any synthetic or turf starts, the connections tried. His two wins came in off-the-turf events at Laurel and Aqueduct. Notice the owners are the same as 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify. But the sixth-place finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3) is a pause for concern, even if on dirt. Board hitter.

4. Dabo, 10-1 (Temple City – Dale Romans/Luan Machado – 4: 1-0-1): The third-place finisher in the John Battaglia closed well, but he only ran a dull fifth in a Gulfstream turf event previously. He does own a synthetic win due to his successful career debut at Arlington Park in a maiden sprint. Prefer to pass. Toss.

5. Baytown Jimbo, 15-1 (Artie Schiller – Paul McEntee/Alexis Achard – 8: 1-1-1): Before discounting this closer, think about the fractions he faced in his last two starts at Woodbine, including a 25.06-second opening quarter and 51.61-second half-mile two starts ago in an optional claimer and 25.21, 49.95 in the Display Stakes. However, TimeformUS does not designate those last two races he competed in as slow-paced. At least he owns synthetic experience. If the Jeff Ruby completely collapses, it is not unthinkable to see this longshot gives the field a scare. Live longshot.

6. Skywire, 3-1 (Afleet Alex – Mark Casse/Gary Boulanger – 2: 2-0-0): Undefeated colt won by six lengths in an off-the-turf Gulfstream optional claimer. With his maiden win coming at Woodbine three months ago, he shows important synthetic experience, too. Gulfstream shippers own a nice record in this race, as they won each year from 2010 to 2015. Many factors are pointing favorably at him. The top choice.

7. Counter Offer, 10-1 (Tapizar – Ian Wilkes/Malcolm Franklin – 7: 1-1-0): His lone win came over turf, which is a good sign for this synthetic race. Overall, however, he seems too slow. Counter Offer finished fourth in the Sam F. Davis, but 13 lengths behind. Even in his turf win, he only won by a neck and probably caught a soft Churchill field. Toss.

8. Twelfthofneverland, 10-1 (Istan – Raymond Handal/Sheldon Russell – 7: 2-1-0): Two off-the-board finishes on turf do not necessarily mean this colt cannot handle Polytrack. At the same time, synthetic courses are generally regarded as geared towards turf runners. He closed well to only lose by a nose at Aqueduct, albeit in a starter optional claimer. Toss.

9. Curlin Grey, 10-1 (Curlin – Kenneth McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr. – 7: 1-1-1): McPeek colt deserves credit for finishing third in a Gulfstream optional claimer to Global Campaign, a horse with a bright future. But note how the fourth-place finisher Awesome D J finished off-the-board in his next start, making the quality of the also-rans questionable. The connections also dropped this one to a maiden claimer two starts ago, which is a red flag. He gives off mixed signals. Use underneath.

10. Somelikeithotbrown, 8/5 (Big Brown – Michael Maker/Tyler Gaffalione – 6: 2-2-1): Nice score in the John Battaglia Memorial. For proof of further back-class, he also finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and second in both the Pilgrim Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park and With Anticipation Stakes (G3) at Saratoga. With his close-range stalking style, he gets credit for versatility as well. Win contender.

11. Speed App, 20-1 (Flatter – D. Wayne Lukas/Walter De La Cruz – 7: 0-1-1): Zero for seven colt is in deep, as he finished a distant second at Oaklawn Park last time out and shows little sign he is capable of winning a Grade 3 Derby prep such as this one. For those who still believe, it is possible the colt can move up on synthetic, and Lukas sneaks bombs into the superfecta at times. Use underneath.