Japan: Arima Kinen preview, analysis, field, morning line

The stage is set for the Grade 1, US$6,395,124 Arima Kinen on Sunday at Nakayama Racecourse. A prize of US$3.2 million goes to the horse who crosses the line in first in this grueling test of ability and stamina over 1 9/16 meters of turf.

Twenty-two horses ranging in age from 3 to 8, including two mares, one filly and two geldings, have been nominated to race. Sixteen will go to the gate with the post time Sunday at 1:40 a.m. EST, Saturday at 10:40 p.m. PST.

The Arima Kinen, along with the Takarazuka Kinen (G1) in June, are two races for which the field is elected in part by the fans. This year a record 478,415 ballots were cast for one horse alone, five-time Grade 1 winner Do Deuce. However, the autumn Tenno Sho (G1) and Japan Cup (G1) winner will not start in the race. He was scratched from the race and retired after an injury to his right foreleg, according to a Friday report from Andrew Hawkins of Idol Horse.

The next two vote getters include Tokyo Yushun (G1) winner Danon Decile and Osaka Hai (G1) winner Bellagio Opera. Others in the public's top ten include Takarazuka Kinen (G1) winner Blow the Horn, the 2024 Kikuka Sho (G1) winner Urban Chic, 7-year-old Deep Bond back for his fourth Arima Kinen, two-time Grade 1 winner Stunning Rose and 2023 spring Tenno Sho (G1) victor Justin Palace.

The Arima Kinen is run to the right, over the Nakayama inner course. However, the actual starting point of the race is set outside the main backstretch in a chute that leads into the turn for home. This demands getting a good position early on in order to not have to cover extra ground over the already demanding distance of 1 9/16 miles, and it’s part of the reason the field is open only to 16 runners. Nonetheless, the inner gates are though to have an advantage.

The field passes before the grandstand and heads up the hill starting about a furlong before the finish line and rising about eight feet over the next sixteenth of a mile. Then it’s once around, into the 1 1/2-furlong homestretch again, and up the hill for the second time before crossing the finish line. Compared to the Tokyo 1 1/2 miles, the relatively short stretch of Nakayama allows for more of some very exciting maneuvering.

The Arima Kinen is the 11th race on the Sunday card of 12. Assigned weights are 123 pounds for 3-year-olds and 128 pounds for 4-year-olds and up, with a 4 1/2-pound allowance for fillies and mares.

Zenno Rob Roy’s time of 2:29.5 set in 2004 remains the record for both the course and the race.

Here’s a look at some of the main contenders:

Urban Chic

One of two youngsters expected to be among the top picks on Sunday is the 3-year-old Urban Chic, this year’s Kikuka Sho winner. After showing potential with a fourth in the Satsuki Sho (G1), the son of Suave Richard disappointed in the Japanese Derby with an 11th-place finish out of 17 runners. Urban Chic returned in the fall with renewed promise and, with new partner Christophe Lemaire, they proved a winning combination. The colt bagged his first graded-stakes win with the St. Lite Kinen (G2) over the 2,200 meters at Nakayama, followed by his first top-level victory with the Kikuka Sho. From 17 bids, Lemaire has won the Arima Kinen three times, finished second five times and third twice.

Danon Decile

Another popular 3-year-old among the nominees is this year’s Derby winner Danon Decile. Withdrawn from the Satsuki Sho just moments before being loaded into the gate due to concerns that something was amiss, Danon Decile returned a month later and captured the Japanese Derby by a two-length margin, surprising as the ninth pick of 17. Returning in the autumn, the son of 2014 Arima Kinen runner Epiphaneia went unprepped into the final of the 3-year-old classics, the 3,000-meter Kikuka Sho. Unable to show his best, he finished in sixth place. Norihiro Yokoyama has ridden all the colt’s six starts and is expected to have the ride on Sunday. If he can win, it’ll be the veteran jockey’s first Arima Kinen win since 1996, when he won aboard Sakura Laurel.

Stunning Rose

This 5-year-old daughter of King Kamehameha had been stunning indeed through most of her 3-year-old year, scoring a second and a first in the only two Classics she took on, the Yushun Himba (G1) and the Shuka Sho (G1). But when up against older horses, she was no match, and slumped through her next three starts. She was given over 10 months off, and returned to slump through three more races. A dizzying change in riders seemed to help little, but, last out on Nov. 11, under yet a new partner Cristian Demuro, hope re-emerged as Stunning Rose bloomed victorious in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1). She has recorded two wins and a fifth at Nakayama, albeit over distances between 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 miles. This time, the reins are expected to go to new partner Ryan Moore.

Stars on Earth

Last year, Stars on Earth went to the Arima Kinen off a third in the Japan Cup. She broke from the far outside gate and quickly went forward to shadow frontrunner Titleholder in second position, holding her ground to finish second only half a length off winner Do Deuce. Up to and including that point, this one had never failed to finish out of the Top 3 in 12 starts, and she’d claimed the first two filly Classics. This year, the Duramente 5-year-old has had only two starts, the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) at the end of March, where she finished eighth, and the Japan Cup last month. In the Japan Cup, returning after eight months, she once again broke from the far outside gate, was sent forward and finished seventh only 0.6 seconds behind winner Do Deuce. This year, Yuga Kawada, who won the 2-year-old pinnacle Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) last Sunday, will be in the saddle.

More contenders

Blow the Horn had proven himself a consistent finisher in the Top 3 through most of his eight starts, including a win of the Takarazuka Kinen in late June. However, two double-digit finishes later he finds himself fallen from grace, by no means should he be ignored. Slower going or rough ground would be an added plus on race day.

Last year, Shahryar went from the Dubai Sheema Classic to the Sapporo Kinen (G2), then the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and finally to the Arima Kinen, with his best finish being a third at the Breeders' Cup. This year, with the same rotation, he has run second, fifth, and third so far. On paper, his prospects for at least making the board again in the Arima Kinen are good. In fact, they’re probably even better, given that last year the plans were to race in Hong Kong, but he was withdrawn shortly before the race. This year, with no overseas excursion just before this race, he should be fresher.