Japan may produce a candidate this weekend for the Ky. Derby

The winding, twisting road to the Kentucky Derby will take a couple international turns on Saturday. The Fukuryu Stakes in Japan and the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai have the potential to toss up an international challenger (or two) for the first Saturday in May.

The Fukuryu is understandably packed with local runners, but the UAE Derby also features a strong Japanese flavor. Only three horses representing Japan have ever contested the Kentucky Derby, with Master Fencer (sixth in 2019) registering the best finish. But Japan’s dirt horses are steadily improving, and we may reach a day in the not-too-distant future when a Japanese raider runs off the roses.

With this possibility in mind, let’s review the key Japanese contenders entered in the Fukuryu and the UAE Derby:

Fukuryu Stakes

Saturday, 2:10 a.m. EDT

Nakayama

Held over 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) at Nakayama Racecourse near Tokyo, the Fukuryu serves as the final leg of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, awarding qualification points to the top four finishers on a 40-16-8-4 basis to the top four finishers.

Although 14 horses have been entered in the Fukuryu, there is not a single Triple Crown nominee in the field, suggesting the race is less likely than the UAE Derby to turn up a Kentucky Derby starter.

Nevertheless, the Fukuryu is well worth watching from a sporting perspective. Four fillies have been entered, with Ladybug looming as the possible favorite. Never out of the trifecta in three starts, all against males, Ladybug arrives at Nakayama off a game third-place effort in the Hyacinth Stakes on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, where she finished third by just 1 3/4 lengths after tracking the early pace.

Ladybug is not the only Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby veteran entered in the Fukuryu. She’ll be joined by Taisei Again (fourth in the Nisai Yushun), Taisei Slugger (sixth in the Hyacinth), Lord Strom (eighth in the Hyacinth), and fellow filly Miko Black (10th in the Cattleya Sho).

Her stiffest competition may come from the allowance winners Meisho Murakumo (the early 3-2 betting favorite in Japan), Glanz Atem and Giuditta, the latter a filly undefeated in two starts.

One long shot worth mentioning is Ca Va, a sprinter stretching out in distance after finishing fifth in the Shoryu Stakes at Chukyo two weeks ago. A son of 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion I’ll Have Another, Ca Va is eligible to improve in his second start of the season. Jockey Hironubo Tanabe, who has won multiple group stakes on dirt in Japan, is named to ride.

UAE Derby

Saturday, 10:05 a.m. EDT

Meydan

If the field for the Fukuryu seems weak, it is because three of Japan’s most formidable dirt sophomores have traveled abroad to contest the 1,900-meter (about 1 3/16 miles) UAE Derby, instead. Chief among them is the Triple Crown nominee France Go de Ina (5-1), the betting favorite in Europe who looks like a star in the making for internationally successful trainer Hideyuki Mori.

Certainly France Go de Ina is bred to be a top-class racehorse. His sire, Will Take Charge, was voted champion 3-year-old male of 2013 after winning the Travers (G1) and competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown. His damsire is two-time Horse of the Year Curlin.

Since France Go de Ina is bred to excel over classic distances, it was not surprising to see him finish fourth in his debut sprinting at Tokyo Racecourse, beaten 7 1/2 lengths by next-out Cattleya Sho winner Lemon Pop. But France Go de Ina has been a different horse since stretching out to 1 1/8 miles, dominating a maiden race by four lengths and an allowance race by five lengths.

Really, it is hard to knock France Go de Ina’s form. He has excellent tactical speed and led from gate to wire in his maiden win, but he also boasts tractability and a strong finishing kick, sprinting the final 600 meters of his allowance triumph in a rapid 37.2 seconds. With Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle, France Go de Ina looms as a major threat to win the UAE Derby and stamp his ticket Churchill Downs.

After all, form lines suggest Japan’s best 3-year-olds have their Middle East counterparts measured. Just check out the victory by France Go de Ina’s stablemate Pink Kamehameha in the 1,600-meter (about one mile) Saudi Derby last month. Pink Kamehameha had to dig deep to hold off the American raider Cowan, but he had little trouble defeating UAE 2000 Guineas Trial winner Rebel’s Romance and UAE 1000 Guineas winner Soft Whisper by more than four lengths.

Considering Rebel’s Romance has already defeated UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) winner Mouheeb, and Soft Whisper previously trounced UAE Oaks (G3) winner Mnasek, it is not hard to conclude Pink Kamehameha has the locals measured. If France Go de Ina proves superior to his stablemate, which certainly appears to be the case on paper, it is easy to envision France Go de Ina posting a decisive victory at Meydan.

The only monkey wrench in the equation is the fact France Go de Ina has not run since December. This stands in contrast to the third Japanese raider, Takeru Pegasus, who got a useful prep run under his belt when finishing fourth in the Hyacinth last month. The son of Belmont Stakes runner-up Dunkirk raced wide every step of the way before churning on to finish just 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Previously runner-up behind Lemon Pop in the Cattleya Sho, Takeru Pegasus can vie for victory at a price if France Go de Ina needs a race off the layoff.