Fair odds: 1 long shot is exotic key in Jockey Club Gold Cup

Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races, according the popular saying.

That limits the contenders for the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday at Saratoga to Tapit Trice, Bright Future and Arthur's Ride with only Arthur's Ride earning his blue ribbon this year after his win last out in the Whitney.

I'm mostly writing off Bright Future, who won this race last year. His comeback win in the Salvator Mile (G3) looks good on paper, but it was slower than his best. That's fine for a comeback race, but then he took another step back last time. 

Tapit Trice is more interesting to me than Arthur's Ride because he'll be two to three times the price, but he is picking up weight off the comeback race. And although he easily dispatched of Highland Falls in the Monmouth Cup (G2) six weeks ago, he'll have to do all his best running late to reel in Arthur's Ride.

The problem with Arthur's Ride is he's 4-5 on the morning line, and I don't see how he wins this race more than half the time.

So where is the opportunity? I guess I'd be excited to bet Tapit Trice at his fair odds, but even if he's not, Pyrenees could spice things up. 

The Stephen Foster (G1) runner-up is 8-1 on the morning line and would be worth that price. As intriguing, I could see where exactas with the favorites also offer some value as none of 2, 3, 4 or 6 interest me at all.

The Brisnet Pace Ratings indicate that both Tapit Trice and Pyrenees have a strong closing kick. Given Tapit Trice on the rail, I could see a scenario where Pyrenees gets the jump on that one depending on who decides to go with Arthur's Ride.

From a pick N standpoint, I'll use 1 and 5 and let Arthur's Ride beat me at odds on then look at intra-race opportunities, depending on Pyrenees's price with the favorites.