It's a wet Kentucky Derby; now what?

Do not let a little rain derail your Kentucky Derby opinions. Thanks to Brisnet's FREE Kentucky Derby past performances and Horse Racing Nation's sire moves report, we can analyze data to see who benefits (or not!) from the weather swirling around Churchill Downs.

Most of the chatter swirls around Mystik Dan, an 8-length winner in his only off track effort, taking the Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn before finishing third behind Muth and Just Steel in the Arkansas Derby on a track rated as fast.

That was impressive for sure, but he is not the only one with impressive off track wins. Some of them, like Sierra Leone's Risen Star (G2) victory, came against better competition. Mystik Dan beat Just Steel in the Southwest; Sierra Leone beat Track Phantom, Catching Freedom, Resilience and Honor Marie in the Risen Star.

As for the other favorite, Fierceness, he won his career debut on an off track before disappointing at 1-2 in the Champagne, also on an off track. I'm encouraged that Fierceness's dam is a full sister to Outwork, who won the Wood Memorial on a muddy track. Another full brother, Nonna's Boy, won his career debut in the slop.

As for my pick Forever Young, there is not a lot to go on pedigree wise, but his second dam, the Deputy Minister mare Darling My Darling, did finish second in a sloppy Frizette Stakes. That's enough for me not to let the rain scare me off my top pick at 8-to-1.

Lastly, we'd be remiss if we didn't mention the two colts by Triple Crown champion Justify, the wunderkind sire who won the 2018 Kentucky Derby on an off track and has Just Steel and Just a Touch here. Justify's progeny win 20 percent of their starts on an off track.

The only other Derby entrant whose sire's progeny win 20 percent of their off track starts is Stronghold, by Ghostzapper.