It's Preakness 2018 favorite Justify's 'Triple Crown to lose'

Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, who like Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes six times, correctly predicted that American Pharoah would sweep the 2015 Triple Crown even before the Bob Baffert trainee ran in the Kentucky Derby. The Hall of Famer, who is scheduled to run Calumet Farm’s Bravazo and Robert Baker and William Mack’s Sporting Chance in the May 19 Preakness at Pimlico, said he thinks Justify will do the same. 

“I think this horse has a great chance; I wish I had him,” Lukas said. “There’s no horse out there right now that can stop him on this run. He’s going to get a mile and a half (in the Belmont). He’s going to run well in the Preakness. It’s his Triple Crown to lose. Ironically, we’ll have two Triple Crown winners in a short period of time. I really think it could happen.

“But you can’t concede anything. My job is to spoil the dream. That’s what I get paid for. I’m a good friend of Bob Baffert’s, but when the gate opens, he’s on his own. He didn’t cheer for Oxbow all the way around there,” Lukas added with a laugh, referring to his 2013 Preakness winner. “Unless somebody shows up, he’s the dominant horse. I feel Bob is in a beautiful position to pull off another Triple Crown. This field of horses has to really step up in order to beat him.”

Before the Derby, many observers talked about how deep and strong the 3-year-olds were. Lukas long has said the best recipe for a Triple Crown is a superior horse in an inferior year. This did not appear to be an inferior year.

“They got maybe a test of reality a little bit in the Derby,” Lukas said. “I think it’s a very good field, very good 3-year-old crop, but Justify, to me, is the dominant horse. And the fact that he’s so lightly raced and now that he’s got the Derby under his belt, he should get better. Bob’s horses generally always stay in top form. I think it would be silly for us to think he’s going to be less than tough in this race. I expect him to run a huge race in the Preakness, and I think we’ll see that.” 

Lukas’ Preakness duo of Bravazo, sixth in the Kentucky Derby, and Pat Day Mile (G3) troubled fourth-place finisher Sporting Chance galloped shortly after the Churchill Downs track opened Saturday. They are scheduled to work at Churchill Sunday morning before vanning to Baltimore Monday.

“We’ll keep hammering away at him obviously,” Lukas said of taking on Justify. “Our horses are tough. The thing about the Preakness is that you’ve got to have a tough horse, a horse that can rebound very quickly from the Derby, regardless of the trip. We’ve got one of those this year – Bob (also) has one is the problem. You can see it by the way he gallops, how aggressive he is.

“Our horse (Bravazo) is tough. I’d like to run it today; I don’t want to wait a week.”

How does Lukas beat Justify?

“Sporting Chance is a very talented horse,” he said of Saratoga’s Grade 1 Hopeful winner who was disqualified from third to fourth in Keeneland’s Blue Grass (G2) after coming out sharply in the stretch and impeding Free Drop Billy. “All we’ve got to do is get a clean trip and see it. I see it every day out there. He has got to get over all the little hiccups – and they were man-made in my opinion; the horse is an absolute professional. It’s no question he was over-ridden in the Blue Grass and so forth. We get a smooth trip and I think you’ll see a very talented horse. He fits with the rest of them.” 

Bravazo won the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, then faded badly when eighth in the Louisiana Derby (G2).

“The problem with Bravazo is very simple: We go from the Risen Star to the Louisiana Derby four weeks later and we get nothing out of it. By that, I mean from a training standpoint we did not move forward. That was a move backward in condition and everything. Now you go six weeks from Louisiana Derby to Kentucky Derby. In my mind as a trainer, I trained him for 10 weeks to the Derby. I didn’t get anything out of the Louisiana Derby. You’re going to see a horse move forward off the Kentucky Derby now.”

Luis Saez will ride Bravazo for the first time in the Preakness, while Luis Contreras has the mount aboard Sporting Chance.