Italian racing: Analysis of 2 Sunday handicaps

As we build toward the Premio Pisa on Sunday, April 5, San Rossore Racecourse stages an interesting card, and we're going to take a closer look at the two main races on the program.

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3th Race – Post time: (09:40 a.m. ET)

PISA (ITALY)

Super Handicap "Premio Aurelia Car"

EUR 28.700,00 – 1 mile and 7 furlongs, 4+. Turf Course. Good to soft (going)

1. Valuta Straniera (102) – 6/1

Farhh – F. Ferramosca / G. Sanna. Form (6-9-4)

There are very few races at Pisa over this trip and in the only two run last year she finished second in both. The distance is right in her wheelhouse and, on good ground last August, she even hit the board in Listed company. However, she could be compromised by a reduced pace scenario and a race shape that doesn't turn into a stamina test. Contender

2. Elminster (95) – 10/1

Lord Chapparal – F. Boccardelli / G. Marcelli. Form (1-8-2)

Likely pacesetter, but at a controlled tempo as he stretches out to this trip for the first time. He has run over this track before but seems better suited to more testing layouts. If allowed to dictate though, he could take some pegging back. Outsider

3. Orologio (96) – 4/1

Vadamos – Soc. Marco Gasparini / M. Arras. Form (2-9-7)

Probable favorite off his latest effort, which confirms current form. The big question mark is the distance, never previously attempted, but if this turns into a sprint finish he's tailor-made for it. Three of his six career wins have come right here on this course. Win contender

4. Trusted Advisor (99) - 4/1

Ulysses – S. Botti Turf / C. Colombi. Form (6-10-4)

Former inmate of Sir Mark Prescott and Cheveley Park Stud, she's our pick to upset the favorite. Very well-treated at the weights and her comeback run in Florence was extremely unlucky, enough to flag her as a strong next-out play. Contender

5. Nordminster (96) - 8/1

Kallisto – Endo Botti Galoppo / G. Malune. Form (9-1-4)

Along with Valuta Straniera, the only true stayer in the field, both on the track and on pedigree. Returns from late November after a below-par run that followed an impressive staying display over 3000 meters at Milan, albeit on extreme ground. Outsider

6. Folken (78) - 20/1

Reliable Man – C. Marzi / S. Saiu. Form (9-7-5)

Figures and form say very little. Doesn't look up to this level. Massive longshot. Toss

Verdict:

Unusual distance for San Rossore where only Nordminster — who is returning and prefers extreme ground — and Valuta Straniera have proven stamina credentials, with the latter shaping as the solid base of the race. The key question is pace: if it turns tactical, Orologio — who is getting back to his best around here — becomes a major factor. The value angle is Trusted Advisor, also untested at the trip but coming off a very unlucky comeback.

Selection:

To Win: Orologio (3)

Longshot: Trusted Advisor (4)

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5th Race – Post time: (10:58 a.m. ET)

PISA (ITALY)

Super Handicap "Premio Nova"

EUR 28.700,00 – 7 ½ furlongs, 4+. Turf Course. Good to soft (going)

1. Impressive Royal (105) – 8/1

Mehmas – P. Convertino / L. Scalora. Form (7-1-4)

Back to his proper level in this class and scored right away when given the chance. With the apprentice allowance he's firmly in the mix. He'll get a favorable pace setup, though not the soft ground he prefers. Has always run well here, breaking his maiden at this track before contesting the local Criterium. Player

2. Beauty Of Tuscany (103) – 6/1

Starspangledbanner – Endo Botti Galoppo / K. Tarascio. Form (1-4-1)

Four wins from five starts at San Rossore and comes off a very convincing score over the same trip. Benefits from the claim of in-form apprentice Kledi Salvatore Tarascio. Would prefer a stronger pace and softer ground to be seen at her very best. Contender

3. Our Terms (102) – 12/1

Wootton Basset – R. Biondi / S. Saiu. Form (12-5-9)

Blue-blooded pedigree, left the UK with an 86 Official Rating after competing in the Acomb at York and the Sirenia at Kempton. However, since arriving in Italy, he hasn't shown much in three starts. Still, the trainer is firing early in the spring and that commands respect. Longshot

4. Alabama Pearl (101) – 8/1

Dandy Man – S. Mariotti / C.Colombi. Form (6-2-2)

Has the class to win this but is not the most reliable type. The February 1st form line with Beauty Of Tuscany puts her right there despite an unfavorable weight swing. Gets a strong rider in Claudio Colombi, who's operating at a 20% strike rate in March. Outsider

5. Zar Bitter (102) – 4/1

Albert Dock – S. Botti Turf / M. Arras. Form (11-10-2)

Yet to win at Pisa and the draw doesn't suit his front-running style. Ignore the last run (troubled trip) — if he's allowed to dictate on a track that favors cruising speed, he could prove very hard to reel in. He's our top pick. Win contender

6. Sebah Il Guerriero (96) – 10/1

Free Eagle – B. Sebastiani / G. Marcelli. Form (5-4-3)

Solid miler who has climbed from claiming ranks to major handicap success. Often talked up at this time of year, but the trip and track configuration may not play to his strengths despite the expected pace. Toss

7. Conformist (95) – 12/1

Helmet – I.Bindi / A. Fele. Form (11-6-11)

Temperamental and difficult to handle in running. As a juvenile he dominated over this course and distance in the historic Premio Goldoni. Now on his third trainer in a year. Watching brief for now, but ability is there. Toss

8. Matharu (94) – 8/1

Mohaather – F. Marras / G. Sanna. Form (2-13-7)

Ran in the local Criterium shortly after arriving from the UK and later won over course and distance. After a long layoff, returned with a solid effort in a Milan dirt claimer. Interesting longshot given a very attractive weight. Longshot

9. Dullingham (95) – 10/1

Harry Angel – A. Floris / L. Cangiano. Form (3-10-2)

A true mudlark who won't get his preferred conditions here. Last run was very good on the lead and the draw allows him to go forward again. However, he'll have Zar Bitter to contend with early. If he engages in a pace battle, he may pay late. Toss

Forecast:

Wide-open handicap, as often here. We side with Zar Bitter despite the wide draw and the presence of Dullingham pushing the pace. If fractions get hot, Alabama Pearl, Impressive Royal and especially Beauty Of Tuscany all become dangerous — though none will get their ideal ground. Sebah Il Guerriero looks like a solid in-the-frame type, even if conditions are not perfect. The interesting outsiders are Matharu and Our Terms, both capable of stepping forward on back class.

Selection:

To Win: Zar Bitter (5)

Longshot: Matharu (8)

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TIPS OF THE DAY:

R1 (09.30am): DOTTORSOTTILE (5)

R2 (10.05am) ALLIGALLI (5) – NAP OF THE DAY

R3 (10.40am) OROLOGIO (3)

R4 (11.23am): STILL INTO YOU (1)

R5 (11.58am): ZAR BITTER (5)

R6 (12.30pm): MARIA SOLE (3)

R7 (01.05pm): KODIAC BLUE (8)

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