Is Kentucky Derby now a 4-horse race? Insiders have answers

Even before college basketball determines its versions, is the 2021 Kentucky Derby already down to its own final four?

Alphabetically, Concert Tour, Essential Quality, Greatest Honour and Life Is Good have separated themselves from the pack. They have emerged as the clear favorites in futures betting in Nevada. They figure to do the same next week in the final pool of the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager. And if social media are any gauge, there is certainly a big perceptual gap between them and all other Derby contenders.

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Horse Racing Nation surveyed respected media handicappers and Las Vegas oddsmakers to get their feelings about the popular belief that, 1 1/2 months out, the Derby has turned into a four-horse race.

Is it premature to suggest that the Kentucky Derby winner most likely will be one of these four?

Andy Serling, handicapper/analyst, New York Racing Association TV and Fox Sports: “I feel like it’s a rough coin flip. If somebody were to give me those four horses as a package and say they were the field, what should they be against everybody else? They might be over 50 percent. They are probably a slight favorite to win. What price would they be if you had to bet them as a field? They would probably be 2-5 or 3-5.”

Naomi Tukker, host/analyst, Maryland Jockey Club TV: “No, I don’t completely believe so. Yes, those horses are the current standouts, having won the major preps to date, earning themselves competitive (Beyer) Speed Figures — Concert Tour 94, Essential Quality 96, Life Is Good 107, Greatest Honour 89. However, it would be worth figuring out the average speed figure needed to win the Kentucky Derby over the years, and most likely you would find out that a few of these except for Life Is Good might not have run up to that level yet.” (Note: Of the last 28 Derby winners, 25 went into the race with a best Beyer of at least 95.)

Jody McDonald, host, CBS Sports Radio and WFAN: “I’d put Greatest Honour behind the other three for one specific reason. The top three are undefeated. Greatest Honour took four shots to break his maiden. Bettors like to lean on those that haven’t shown the ability to lose. Personally, I think the logic is a little faulty in not incorporating the possibility for improvement enough.”

Paul Zilm, risk supervisor, Circa Sports: “Mandaloun continues to fly under the radar. If he wins Saturday he should absolutely be part of the ‘Fab Five.’ And I do expect one more party crasher. Proxy, Risk Taking or someone like Soup And Sandwich, maybe. I just don’t think it can be this clear-cut before we even start the biggest preps.”

Joe Asher, CEO, William Hill US: “Yes, it’s premature. They are good horses, but the race is six weeks away, and we all know that a lot can happen in that time. Of course a lot happens in the race itself when you have 20 3-year-olds going 1 1/4 miles for the first time.”

Tukker: “It’s an eventful race containing 20 runners and plenty of traffic. If favorites and short-priced horses would always win, where have the upsets come from? This also points toward natural speed horses having an edge over closers — think Greatest Honour — just by virtue of staying out of traffic. From the four you mentioned, Life Is Good seems the pick. But he hasn’t encountered that much trouble in his career, so one could argue he hasn’t gone through the ring of fire just yet.”

Because of the heavy momentum in their direction, will it be difficult to find value on any of these four, either in futures or at post time May 1?

Rich Perloff, analyst, TVG: “The four horses mentioned look like the major players right now. But come Derby day I can almost certainly get 4-1 or 6-1 on at least one of them. So why would I want just slightly more than that in a futures pool six weeks out?”

Zilm: “It will absolutely be hard to find value on the two Bafferts come Derby week. They have looked so impressive — and have his name attached. I have no hesitation in thinking many people are betting Baffert blindly. I was really hoping Concert Tour would lose or wouldn’t be as impressive last weekend in the Rebel. Not because I don’t like the horse, but I wanted to see how bettors reacted. His winning in the fashion he did just made things more complicated. Plus you throw in Hozier, another Baffert, stepping up with a second-place finish.”

Serling: “So much can and does happen. We’ve had a year that, until the Rebel, horses have run relative to their odds. The good horses have won or run second. I don’t think horses in these prep races have moved down. The Rebel is the first one in which some potential Derby contenders underachieved. I think we came out of the Rebel saying Concert Tour is legitimate. Caddo River was dramatically overrated. I think even Brad Cox was probably surprised he was favored, frankly. So we did actually lose a theoretical Derby contender. I think this was the first time that this happened. It won’t be the last.”

Asher: “Horses throw in a bad race, and then people toss them out. I remember when Afleet Alex lost his first start of the year in 2005 because he had a lung infection that was discovered after the race when they scoped him, and people tossed him out. I bet him after that race at 25-1. Next thing you know he just misses in the Derby — of course, since I bet him — and goes on to win the Preakness and Belmont in style. He nearly got knocked down in the Preakness and still won and then crushed the field in the Belmont. So you never know.”

Tukker: “I actually think that, in general, there always seems to be that one ‘hype’ horse, the favorite that is taking plenty of money on the day, causing a bit of an overlay on the rest of the field. That actually provides the value you are looking for. Don’t forget that a lot of the Kentucky Derby bettors might just be a fan for the day and want to be part of the action, allowing the board to guide them.”

Serling: “Do I think there’s more value in betting horses in Derby future pools or betting them on Derby day? Probably Derby day, believe it or not. People act as though anytime (a futures price) is better than Derby day, they’ve got value. The word ‘value’ has been so badly misused in horse racing that it’s really hard to get the truth of what it means anymore. The notion by so many people, unfortunately, is that value represents any horse that’s a long shot when, of course, that’s not true. There are probably more horses that pay $4 that were value than horses that pay $40 that were value.”

Are overlays more likely on the rest of the field?

Ed Olczyk, ex-NHL center, NBC Sports racing analyst, 2018 Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship winner: “This could be a year when 4-1 is the favorite. There is great value everywhere regardless of who you like. I say great for the bettors.”

Zilm: “I think there will be overlays on much of the field, which could spark some play. Everyone threw out Known Agenda with his poor performance two back. If he runs well next out and qualifies for the Derby, I would absolutely watch out for him on the betting board.”

Serling: “I’m not sure why we’re dismissing Weyburn. I’m not sure why we’re dismissing the Chad Brown runners (Crowded Trade, Highly Motivated and Risk Taking). I’m not saying that they’re supposed to be 10-1 shots. As a group they are reasonable, lightly raced, improving horses that ran reasonable figs. Is Greatest Honour really that much better than Risk Taking? Are we sure? Is that a New York bias for me a little bit? Maybe. I’m not sure he’s mountains above him. Greatest Honour seems awfully vulnerable after his last race.”

Perloff: “As for futures, if you’re talking about pari-mutuel pools, I hate ’em. I simply don’t fancy the idea of making a wager about whether a particular horse will even be in the Derby starting gate unless I’m getting fixed odds that warrant the gamble.”

Asher: “There’s always value to be found. I never bet the favorite in the Derby. Too much can happen, so you have to search for value.”

Has the road to the Derby turned into a weekly overreaction to the best-looking winner each Saturday?

Perloff: “For sure that’s true. It’s why I avoid creating early Derby top 10 lists like the plague.”

Tukker: “Maybe, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. What is wrong with putting the spotlight on a tremendous performance, hyping a horse up to be the next big thing? Horse-racing aficionados, industry participants and owners thrive on that dream.”

Asher: “It is likely that pretty much every year. But that doesn’t mean one of the top horses won’t win; they have shown real ability. I just prefer to look for a price.”

Serling: “Is that really so different than other sports insofar as the flavor of the week? In sports, people do flock to recency. In life, people flock to recency. I think people get far too enamored with recency. Life Is Good has had a week to recede. Maybe Life Is Good doesn’t look quite as good a week later to some, because suddenly they see this big win by Concert Tour. What I said on the broadcast was, before making a real judgment, I’ll wait for the figs. They were somewhere close to the horses that are contenders behind Life Is Good. Concert Tour didn’t separate himself from the field as the clear second choice just because he won by four lengths. Even if you win by 40 lengths, you still have to run fast enough. I think Concert Tour looked OK, but he certainly isn’t a horse I’d be taking 5-1 on right now to win the Derby.”

Zilm: “The weekly overreaction by bettors and, some extent, me — and other bookmakers — is natural. We see similarities in sports futures. Illinois college basketball is a big example of that this week. People won’t wait for confirmation. They see a romp and somewhat lose perspective. I personally was guilty of that with Greatest Honour. His win in the Fountain of Youth was visually impressive to me, and I didn’t want to wait and get burned, so I over moved him. I have since floated him back up (to 9-1), because the support hasn’t been there. I probably didn’t move Life Is Good (plus-325) and Concert Tour (plus-590) enough, but I can’t in good conscience make them much lower this far out when, on Derby day, they wouldn’t be much lower.”

Serling: “I’m not so sure that we’ve haven’t just had a random string of good situations for shorter prices. These horses don’t have to win, and they don’t always win. A lot can happen. I’m not saying that those aren’t the top four at this point, because I do think they are the top four. But I don’t think it’s as cut and dried as everybody else does. I think right now it’s Life Is Good — and then a whole lot of other horses that have a chance.”

Tukker: “In the end I would have a critical look at the field on the day and compare what is in front of you and the body of work presented by the runners. This is also at this stage an argument for betting on the day, because in the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby anything could happen. One does not want to think of those scenarios, but until they line up in the gates, you’re not guaranteed anything. When you see your horse out of the gates, you know you’re in the game.”