Is Justify the next American Pharoah? Triple Crown analysis
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It was only a few years ago that we were anxiously awaiting American Pharoah's attempt at the Belmont Stakes, with hopes he would shatter the 37-year drought of Triple Crown winners. He delivered a powerful, wire-to-wire win.
Despite Pharoah's brilliant Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes performances, he was far from a Belmont Stakes lock based on our Super Screener handicapping system's proven race-winning criteria.
Now we have
Justify on the cusp of another Triple Crown. How does he compare to American Pharoah? And what does he have in common with others who made it through the first two legs?
Check out the chart below! Click to view the full version...
Justify vs. American Pharoah
It's all so reminiscent of 2015. Bob Baffert trains Justify and has had the colt on a mirror work schedule as American Pharoah. They both had a tough Kentucky Derby and bounced back for a sloppy Preakness Stakes. Photographers have captured Justify looking as filled-out and striding into his works as Pharoah was three years ago.
But Justify also resembles American Pharoah when looking at
Super Screener critera, too.
Competed in first Triple Crown legs
When it comes to Belmont Stakes winners, very few of them have competed in all three Triple Crown races. This is a strike for any horse hoping to win the Crown, but it underscores just how hard a feat sweeping these three races has become.
Declining late pace figures
Justify and American Pharoah continued a pattern of declining late pace Brisnet figures -- slowing down at the end of races -- from the final Derby prep to the Triple Crown series. In Pharoah's case, he was just so much better than his rivals that a regression did not matter. Justify has appeared much the same so far, but can he keep it going for a mile and a half?
Late pace Brisnet scores less than 96
When it comes to telling how much a horse has slowed down in a race, we once again look at the Brisnet numbers. Both American Pharoah and Justify dropped from 100s to low 90s in their previous starts. Late pace numbers lower than 96 are a big red flag, as they show that a horse is really losing energy in the final stages of the race.
In American Pharoah's case, he was able to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes and conserve energy for that final, grueling furlong. Justify also has a high cruising speed and early turn of foot. But will he still have enough in the tank to hold off the late runners this time?
There is one other key criteria where Justify gets a strike that American Pharoah did not. This one could be the biggest knock against him, as no other horse in history has ever done what Justify has. But you'll have to get the Belmont Stakes Super Screener to find out!
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