Iroquois fair odds: Look for an upset in Kentucky Derby prep

Trainer Greg Compton is just 3-for-99 lifetime at Churchill Downs, but that is not stopping me from picking his trainees in both the Grade 3 Iroquois and Pocahontas on Saturday.

The races begin the roads to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks, respectively. My Pocahontas fair odds already extolled the virtues of Compton's charge, Embrace the Moment, in the initial Oaks prep. That filly is likely to be favored, but Compton has a chance to pull an upset in the Iroquois with Nothing Personal.

The two juveniles have more in common than just their age and trainer, as Compton conditions both for Gregg Massanelli and Margaret Molleston's MAG Racing. Embrace the Moment and Nothing Personal won their career debuts by open lengths as well, with Embrace the Moment graduating at Delaware Park and Nothing Personal at Colonial Downs, and Jaime Rodriguez is their jockey then and now.

Unlike his stablemate, however, Nothing Personal scored on debut from off the pace, fanning wide and drawing off to an 8 3/4-length score to pay $10.20. The runner-up came back to win his next race. Compton is 0-for-3 in stakes at Churchill Downs, and this would be his first graded-stakes win anywhere. I mention this not because I don't think he is capable but because I think that means we'll get our price.

Comport is the 6-5 morning-line favorite off his $200,000 Ellis Park Juvenile score last month. He defeated Spice Runner, who is also entered here, by two lengths at 7-20, and it was another 6 1/2 lengths back to third. He probably wins this race more often than the others, but given my fair odds of 2-1 vs. a morning line of 6-5, there is just no way to play this horse.

Incredibly, Steve Asmussen is 0-for-11 in the Iroquois since it became a fixture at the September meeting. Spice Runner will have to improve to get the Hall of Fame trainer on the board, but I'd rather bet him to turn the tables on Comport than take the chalk to repeat.

All that said, Nothing Personal figures to offer strong value and is a solid single for me in multi-race wagers, and he's a horse I would be excited to bet at even half his morning-line price.

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