Iroquois Stakes 2023: Odds and analysis for Derby points prep

Nine 2-year-olds will race one mile in Saturday’s Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, and the first qualifying points for Kentucky Derby 2024 will be awarded to the top five finishers.

In addition to the purse money and the qualifying points for the Run for the Roses, the winner gets a position in the starting gate for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 3 and an entry-fees paid spot in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on Nov. 25 at Churchill, a race that also offers Derby points.

The sires Arrogate and Constitution have two horses in the Iroquois. Hall of fame trainers D. Wayne Lukas and Steve Asmussen also have a pair of 2-year-olds in the field. Asmussen has three past winners in the race between 2009 and 2014 and Todd Pletcher was the winner in 2021 with Major General.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Iroquois, which will be run at 4:55 p.m. EDT as race 9 of 11, with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff.

1. Liberal Arts, 10-1. Arrogate – Robert Medina / Cristian Torres – 3: 1-1-1 - $74,500. Liberal Arts broke his maiden at Ellis Park in his third career start against a field of 11 at 6-1. The son of Arrogate won with a stalking trip going seven furlongs. Trainer Robbie Medina was an assistant for Shug McGaughey for many years and is looking for his first win in a graded-stakes race. Toss.

2. West Saratoga, 12-1. Exaggerator – Larry Demeritte / Rafael Bejarano – 2: 1-0-0 - $70,913. West Saratoga has five career starts, and all of them were in Kentucky. He made his first start in one of the early races for 2-year-olds at Keeneland in April, when he finished fourth in the only time he was out of the top three. He then was second in his next three starts before getting his maiden victory at Ellis Park in August with a front-end effort going a mile. Toss.

3. Union Roll, 5-1. Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Gerardo Corrales – 1: 1-0-0 - $34,500. Union Roll trained at Monmouth Park for Todd Pletcher and was a winner by more than five lengths in his debut after he rallied from fifth in an eight-horse field. The Calumet Farm homebred won at odds of 7-1, which is high for a Pletcher first-time starter, defeating a heavy favorite from Godolphin and Michael Stidham. Use underneath.

4. Edified, 6-1. Tapit – Steve Asmussen / Ricardo Santana Jr. – 2: 1-0-0 - $77,600. Edified was a debut winner at Ellis Park when he beat Liberal Arts after pressing the pace at odds of almost 10-1. He drew off to win by 3 1/2 lengths in that July race against a field of nine. Edified then moved to stakes company in the Saratoga Special (G2) where he got bumped three times at the start, had to steady and basically lost all chance. Top choice.

5. Market Street, 12-1. Street Sense – D. Wayne Lukas / Gabe Saez – 4: 1-1-0 - $113,538. Market Street was a rare first-time winner for trainer D. Wayne Lukas when he was a front-end winner at Ellis Park on a sloppy track by almost four lengths at 10-1. Since then he ran in three graded stakes at Saratoga, starting with a sixth in the Sanford (G3) and then a second in the Saratoga Special. A couple of weeks ago he set the pace in the With Anticipation (G3) on the turf and faded to seventh and last. Toss.

6. Seize the Grey, 15-1. Arrogate – D. Wayne Lukas / Jaime Torres – 3: 1-0-1 - $75,750. Seize the Grey needed two starts to get his maiden win, which happened at Saratoga on a sloppy track with a gate-to-wire effort. In his debut at Ellis Park he raced greenly and finished eighth in that race, which included Edified and Liberal Arts. Last month he was third in the Skidmore as the favorite in a race that was meant for the turf but was run on a muddy track. Seize the Grey had to steady early in that race, which forced him to rally eight wide from ninth. Trifecta possible.

7. Gettysburg Address, 6-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 1: 1-0-0 - $40,600. Gettysburg Address is a homebred son of Constitution who won his debut at Ellis Park for WinStar Farm and trainer Brad Cox. He wore blinkers in that race and was sent off at 8-1. Use underneath.

8. Risk It, 9-5. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Tyler Gaffalione– 1: 1-0-0 - $57,750. Risk It was a heavy favorite in his first start, which happened at Saratoga a month ago. The son of Gun Runner broke alertly, went right to the lead and drew off to win by more than four lengths. He was a $500,000 yearling purchase at Keeneland in September. Win contender.

9. Patriot Spirit, 5-1. Constitution – Michael B. Campbell / Jesus Castanon – 1: 1-0-0 - $36,000. Patriot Spirit won by six lengths in a seven-furlong race at Colonial Downs three weeks ago wearing blinkers after stalking the early pace. He sold for $95,000 as a yearling and then $235,000 as a 2-year-old. Win contender.

Summary: In the Iroquois field of nine, each of the 2-year-olds has one win in their past performances. For four of them that is also their only start, and three others went on to run in a stakes race at Saratoga.

Edified lost all chance after a rough start in the Saratoga Special. Market Street ran in three stakes at the upstate New York track with a second in the Special. Seize the Grey was third in the Skidmore after rallying from back of the field.

Patriot Spirit, Risk It and Union Roll were open-length winners of their only start, but moving up to a graded-stakes race always presents a significant challenge.

Steve Asmussen holds a strong hand to win the Iroquois for the fourth time with Risk It (9-5) moving up from a big maiden win at Saratoga and Edified (6-1) hoping to rebound from his bad trip last month. Edified is the top choice with the prospect of better wagering value.