Iroquois 2023 odds and picks: Ky. Derby trail gets underway
The Kentucky Derby 2024 trail kicks off with the Iroquois Stakes today at Churchill Downs. The nine-horse field features six maiden winners and three stakes runners, but hey, we've got to start somewhere.
Trainer Brad Cox has 12-1 shot Gettysburg Address who broke his maiden at first asking on Aug. 6 at Ellis Park.
“He’s acted like a horse who will like stretching out in distance to one mile in the Iroquois,” Cox said. “We know he has to step up to be competitive in this race and we’re confident he can do so.”
Last year, Cox began his road to Kentucky Derby 149 in the Iroquois when Jace’s Road finished third in the race. Jace’s Road would go on to finish 17th in the Kentucky Derby.
Three colts in the field have tested stakes waters. No. 5 Market Street (8-1) finished second in the Saratoga Special (G2) and seventh in the With Anticipation for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. No. 6 Seize the Grey (10-1) ran third in the off-the-turf Skidmore stakes also for Lukas. No. 4 Edified (8-1) was fifth in the Saratoga Special for trainer Steve Asmussen
From the six maiden winners, four of them won on debut, each at different tracks. Three did so at six furlongs on dirt: No. 3 Union Roll (5-1) won at Monmouth for Todd Pletcher, No. 7 Gettysburg Address (12-1) prevailed at Ellis for Brad Cox and No. 8 Risk It (2-1) scored for trainer Steve Asmussen. No. 9 Patriot Spirit (7-2) also won his debut for trainer Michael Campbell; that came at seven furlongs on the Colonial Downs dirt.
The field is rounded out by no. 1 Liberal Arts (20-1) who broke his maiden third time out in a maiden special at Ellis Park for trainer Robert Medina and no. 2 West Saratoga who took five tries to get his first win, accomplishing that in an Ellis Park maiden special for trainer Larry Demeritte.
The 2-1 favorite, Risk It, is a Gun Runner colt who broke his maiden at Saratoga, earning a 79 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. But West Saratoga, who is 12-1 on the morning line, has the highest Beyer figure in the field, earning an 81 for his Ellis maiden win.
| Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liberal Arts (20-1) | 73 | 84 | 79 |
| 2 | West Saratoga (12-1) | 81 | 100 | 82 |
| 3 | Union Roll (5-1) | 61 | 78 | 80 |
| 4 | Edified (8-1) | 69 | 82 | 79 |
| 5 | Market Street (8-1) | 65 | 93 | 78 |
| 6 | Seize the Grey (10-1) | 73 | 92 | 89 |
| 7 | Gettysburg Address (12-1) | 63 | 85 | 81 |
| 8 | Risk It (2-1) | 79 | 99 | 98 |
| 9 | Patriot Spirit (7-2) | 75 | 99 | 90 |
Based on speed figures, West Saratoga might be worthy of extra consideration at the 12-1 morning-line price, given that he has the best lifetime speed figures on Beyer and TimeformUS.
Looking at the pace scenario, the TimeformUS pace projector suggests a fast pace, with five horses all racing near the lead: West Saratoga, Market Street, Gettysburg Address, Risk It and Patriot Spirit.
Visit Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page for more information on the Churchill Downs stakes today and some of the other big races around the US and at Woodbine.
Iroquois links
HRN's Ed DeRosa offers his Iroquois fair odds to help you consider whether the prices on each of the nine runners will provide value.
HRN's Ron Flatter opines that the Pocahontas Stakes on the same card is Breeders' Cup material, but not the Iroquois.
HRN handicapper Reinier Macatangay offers value plays for the Iroquois and Pocahontas.
In HRN's Iroquois preview article, trainer Brad Cox offers thoughts on whether his Gettysburg Address will like stretching out to one mile.
2023 Iroquois G3
In addition to the racing action Saturday at Churchill Downs, the connections of Mage and Pretty Mischievous will be on hand to get their trophies from the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks.