Indiana Derby fair odds: Look for value beyond the top 3

My hopes for scoring out in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby on Saturday at Horseshoe Indianapolis were dashed with news that Sir Greylind scratched, but there is still potential for value in the race given the presence of Santa Anita Derby winner and Kentucky Derby participant Stronghold.

As discussed ahead of the Ohio Derby, known names from the Triple Crown trail attract money-oftentimes too much money. That means value on others. So it could go with Stronghold, the 2-1 morning line favorite for the 1 1/16-mile race.

Admittedly, I had a very difficult time separating the top three choices, but if the known name attracts the most money, then I'm comfortable with #2 E J Won the Cup being the better option of #8 Dragoon Guard.

Yes, Stronghold destroyed E J Won the Cup in the Santa Anita Derby, but the horses have been on different trajectories since with the former having competed in the Kentucky Derby and the latter a winner of the Texas Derby.

That Texas Derby win follows a progression since stretching out with improvement each race. Another step forward is never guaranteed, but E J Won the Cup is a better play at > 2-1 than Stronghold is at < 2-1.

That does love Dragoon Guard as a sort of wildcard, as he has races as fast as the other two, but the outside post while stretching out is a minor concern. Plus, trainer Brad Cox is a money magnet. 

The Indiana Derby is the last of 12 races on a stakes-laden day that includes the Indiana Oaks (G3) as race 11, a pair of stakes on turf to kick off the all-stakes late Pick 4 and the return of 2021 Indiana Derby winner Mr. Wireless in the Schaefer Memorial to start the all-stakes late pick 5. Post time is noon EDT.