Indiana Derby fair odds: Former long shot is the better bet

Looking back at ghosts of Kentucky Derby preps past, I remember thinking that Cagliostro had a long-shot look to him in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby earlier this year at Fair Grounds. That ended up not working out so well, but at the very least it told me that his connections have high hopes for him.

Trainer Cherie DeVaux gave the Upstart colt 10 weeks between starts, and he responded with a snappy runner-up finish going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. Now with five weeks leading to his start in Saturday's Indiana Derby (G2), he stretches back out to two turns and gets six pounds from his main rivals.

That is the good news. The bad news is that while his best races before the last one had been going two turns, they also had been on Lasix, as was the career-best figure earned in his last race. Off Lasix, Cagliostro has been sixth and eighth, beaten a combined 15 lengths. Still, the presence of Verifying should get us the right price on Cagliostro, as the Brad Cox colt is the only real danger.

The other element working against Cagliostro and in favor of Verifying is the track profile. In the last four weeks, only two of 28 route races on dirt at Horseshoe Indianapolis have been won by horses more than four lengths off the pace, and half have been won by those on or within a length of the lead. Verifying definitely figures to be among the latter group, with Cagliostro chasing from the former category.