Improbable sticking around for the Oaklawn Handicap

With Improbable exiting the widest post in last Saturday’s Oaklawn Mile field of 11 — he wore saddle towel 14 but three entrants scratched — trainer Bob Baffert considered it “a winning race.”

“He ran big. He showed up,” Baffert said.

The only problem?

“That horse that beat him is a good one,” Baffert added.

Having stalked the pace on the outside, Improbable outlasted the front-runners to hit the top of the stretch alone. But Tom’s d’Etat uncorked a rally from mid-pack to defeat him by 3/4 of a length in both horses’ season debuts.

Improbable, a 4-year-old son of City Zip, did enough for Baffert to leave him in Hot Springs, Ark., the next three weeks for a follow-up effort in the May 2 Oaklawn Handicap (G2).

“He came out of it well,” the trainer said.

Campaigned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing, Improbable did gain one benefit from his wide draw. He didn’t spend too much time in the gate, where he again appeared fractious. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke rose out of the irons for a moment to let his horse settle.

And then they were off well.

“I’m going to keep him there — school him there,” Baffert said. “With the gate, he only does that when he goes on the road. He doesn’t do that in the mornings.”

Improbable sports a 4-3-0 record in 11 starts. He has run exclusively in stakes company since breaking his maiden on debut, with the 2018 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) victory his career highlight. Since going favored in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, he has backed up in distance, winning Del Mar’s Shared Belief Stakes last August at a mile.

The 1 1/8-mile Oaklawn Handicap will stretch Improbable back out with a loaded field expected to include Razorback (G3) winner Warrior’s Charge, New Orleans Classic (G2) hero By My Standards and Santa Anita Handicap (G1) victor Combatant.

Improbable won't have to rematch with Tom's d'Etat, whose trainer, Al Stall Jr., said he prefers to wait and run at Churchill Downs once it opens.