Illinois Derby fair odds: Known names likely will be overbet

The Illinois Derby's seven-year hiatus ends Sunday at Hawthorne, and I am betting this year's renewal to have a similar vibe as that the 2017 edition in that I am backing a Brendan Walsh-trained 3-year-old.

Walsh won the last renewal of Illinois' most prestigious dirt race with Multiplier and returns to Stickney this year with Raguel. Multiplier paid $10.80, and I expect a similar mutuel if Raguel gets it done on Sunday.

The reason for the confidence in price is the presence of other big names like trainers Ken McPeek and Al Stall Jr. with Real Men Violin and Le Gris, respectively. Those two are the second and third choices on the morning line, but I have them as the fifth and sixth most likely winners, which means there should be wagering opportunity.

These are also the only two entrants nominated to the Triple Crown, which is germane because this race offers its winner a $20,000 reimbursement for an entry in the Preakness Stakes on May 18 at Pimlico.

The morning-line favorite is Woodcourt, and I agree that he is the most likely winner. He was really no match for his foes in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) or Rebel Stakes (G2) but ran OK in both, and his allowance wins this winter hinted at ability. My biggest trepidation is that the pedigree screams miler at best, and this will be a testing 1 1/8 miles for a horse whose best races unquestionably came at a mile.

So, back to Raguel, who tracked a slow pace last out in an entry-level allowance race at Gulfstream. He was no match for the winner that day, but it was a long way back to fourth, and while the Brisnet Speed Rating there does not inspire, his 12 Raogzin Sheets Figure is the best of this sextet by far from a last-out perspective.

Patriot Spirit intigues me from a pace standpoint. If these connections are committed to press the maiden, Ravin's Town, then Patriot Spirit can be "lone second speed" and put the field away on the far turn.

There is some chance that Ravin's Town is lone speed, but this is a tall task going from 5 1/2 furlongs off a nine-month layoff to 1 1/8 miles a week later. If Patriot Spirit shows some professionalism behind him then his chances go way up; if he tries to duel with the maiden then even better for our top pick Raguel.

From a wagering standpoint, I'm expecting Raguel to offer the most value. But, if the money flows to the top three choices Real Men Violin, Woodcourt and Le Gris, then playing around with Raguel and Patriot Spirit makes the most sense. I'd be willing to mix in Woodcourt as well, but I just can't envision wanting to use Real Men Violin or Le Gris at these prices.

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