If not Justify, the experts like this Belmont 2018 contender to upset

As of midweek, Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey and handicapper Randy Moss hadn’t yet solidified their 2018 Belmont Stakes picks. But both NBC Sports analysis seemed to narrow it to two contenders.

“I feel that Justify is going to have a more difficult time in the Belmont than he has in the first two,” Bailey said. “Is the tank empty? Does he have enough to finish it off?”

“My opinion is that in the Preakness Justify regressed by anywhere from two to four lengths from his Kentucky Derby win, despite a more advantageous pace scenario,” Moss said. “If he runs the Preakness back again in the Belmont, he loses.”

If it’s not Justify, both agreed, second morning line choice Hofburg is a leading contender to take the third leg of the Triple Crown series.

The colt is by Tapit, whose progeny have won three of the last four Belmonts. He last raced in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a troubled seventh, and horses who enter the Belmont rested since the first weekend in May have won 10 of the last 18 editions.

Oh, and his connections: owner/breeder Juddmonte Farms, trainer Bill Mott and jockey Irad Oritz. That’s about as good as it gets.

“He had some trouble in the Kentucky Derby and now he’s had some time off,” Bailey said of Hofburg. “So (the) mile and a half suits him just fine.”

“I agree with Jerry completely that Hofburg is the primary horse to look at, if not Justify,” Moss said. “I would put Vino Rosso almost in that same category as well. I think historically, when you’re looking for a horse to win the Belmont, you look for horses that didn’t run in the Preakness. We’ve seen the Derby to Belmont become so successful.”

Hence the shoutout for Vino Rosso. He’s trained by Todd Pletcher, who rarely runs horses back in the Preakness. Pletcher’s other Belmont entry, Noble Indy, is also a Grade 2 winner who should sit near the pace. Vino Rosso will run from off it.

Whether any of those other names have a shot sees to come down to Justify and the way he’s handling the Triple Crown grind. Plus, the unbeaten colt has raced a compact schedule overall, making each of his five starts since Feb. 18.

“Is he capable of now running for the third time in five weeks and stepping his game back up to where it was in the Kentucky Derby?” Moss asked. “Or is his schedule of all of these races compressed into a short period of time going to jump up and prevent him from sweeping the Triple Crown or putting in the name of so many other great horses that tried and couldn’t get it done?”

Justify took to the Belmont Park track for the first time Thursday morning, putting in a gallop that left trainer Bob Baffert saying, “I’ll sleep better tonight” after seeing it.

”Honestly,” Bailey said, “I have not come to my conclusion on who I’m picking yet.