Midland: How I'm playing Sunday's Empire 6 mandatory payout

Saratoga's new Empire 6 wager has a jackpot carryover of $438,519 and the wager's first-ever mandatory payout scheduled for Sunday.

Most of the races are decimated by scratches after heavy rain this weekend took events off turf, which makes this an interesting bet for several reasons: 

- As of first post, the main track is listed as good, but that should change throughout the day, and more rain is expected around 6 p.m., which may or may not hit before the last race or two. 

- The first two races in the sequence are for 2-year-olds and full of first time starters 

- The Grade 1-winning mare Blue Prize is a 4-5 favorite in race 9, and will be a tempting single for many.

- The smaller fields will create additional focus on the same horses, but also makes it tempting to just hit the "all" button in some races.

With so much uncertainty, why even play the carryover? Well, first, because it's a lot of fun. Also, recall the carryover gives us a built-in advantage compared to the normal takeout.  This chart shows the net takeout depending what is bet on today's carryover. 

Given that it's Saratoga, and the large carryover and mandatory payout, I would expect $1.5 million or more bet on the pool. 

What is the best strategy?

Looking at the sequence, it's going to be a little difficult to find value. 

Race 5 - 7 horses, wide open $75,000 maiden claimer for 2-year-old fillies

Race 6 - 8 horses, two big standouts in 2-year-old filly maiden special

Race 7 - 5 horses, main track only runners #2 and #3 favored strongly

Race 8 - 7 horses, might be one of the more wide open races 

Race 9 - 7 horses, Blue Prize is 4-5 morning line favorite in the feature

Race 10 - 5 horses, not much speed in this off the turf route

It's not hard to think that the most common tickets may look like this: 

Race 5 - about five deep

Race 6 - #2 and #4 

Race 7 - #2 and #3 

Race 8 - go about four deep

Race 9 - single Blue Prize at 4/5 

Race 10 - go three deep 

This ticket only costs $48. But if this ticket wins, it's hard to see the payout being more than a couple hundred dollars, if that.  

How to play it then? 

Because these carryovers don't come around that often, we're going to try and spread enough to cover some of the less logical chances, which can knock out a lot of tickets. 

Race 5: We're going to go five deep in this race, using the #3, #4, #5, #6 and #8 -- all of which that have some chance in this open field of maiden claimers. 

Race 6: Many people will be inclined to go with the #4 and #6, both which had excellent debut races. A third option is the Todd Pletcher first-timer, #7 Abilene Trail (9-2), who is a half-sister to 2015 Kentucky Derby fifth-place finisher Danzig Moon. We're going to use those three and also throw in #8 Bird Tycoon (8-1). She was rolling at the end in her debut at 5 1/2 furlongs and now she gets an extra eighth of a mile to try to run them down. 

Race 7: There's not much speed in here. I'm going to stick with the #2 and #3, who both figure to be top choices in the wagering. 

Race 8: Of the older races, this is our spread race.  The #4 Jennemily (15-1) has good speed, and we're going to use the other main-track-only runners: #2, #9, #12, #13.

Race 9: This is what much of the Pick 6 comes down to. Can you beat Blue Prize?  I see some potential for the #3, #5 and #6 going to the lead here and perhaps setting a good pace. In addition to #7 Blue Prize, I'm going to use #4 Vexatious, and #1 Pacific Wind.  

Race 10: In the last, I see #5 Take Charge Tina (3-1) getting to the lead rather easily. I'm going to single her. If you are looking for a second horse, you can also add #2, Sooner Schooner. While it seems scary to get this far and single the last, the good thing about singling the last is you can see your potential payout and hedge on some of the other runners a little bit. 

So that is: 

3,4,5,6,8

with 4,6,7,8

with 2,3

with 2,4,9,12,13

with 1,4,7

with 5

= $120 total 

Good luck!