Saratoga 2022: How to play opening day
The first day of Saratoga is a high priority for horseplayers and racing fans, even in the face of some morning glitches on Twitter. In anticipation of a great migration, my analysis for today's 10-race extravaganza has taken up residency here.
In the opener, No. 6 Bear Alley (5-2 ML) is predicted to be in front early by the Horse Racing Nation Pace Report, and I echo those sentiments. This is a horse that's been popular in the claim box and comes in off back-to-back wins at Churchill Downs. But he is stepping up in class and has gone this distance only once before in his 19 career starts.
No. 9 Kershaw (4-1 ML) drops in class, and the last time he was in for a tag was in February. He won that start as well as his next two. Way above his head two starts back against the likes of Highly Motivated and Stage Raider, he now gets Irad Ortiz Jr. riding and looms large from the outside.
No. 7 Giocare (7-2 ML) is going first off the claim for trainer Orlando Noda, who has a 23 percent success rate with this move. He's hit the board in his last two starts and is likely hoping for some pressure on Bear Alley, perhaps coming from the likes of No. 1 Parsimony (9-2 ML), No. 3 Auburn Hills (20-1 ML), or No. 5 Smooth Operation (15-1 ML). Smooth Operation is hoping to avoid dodging deer on the racetrack for this start.
Race 2 features 2-year-old fillies, and it seems that all the money will be going to No. 1 Half a Chance (9-5 ML) and No. 6 Chocolate Gelato (7-5 ML). They both can win, but my focus will be on No. 3 Will Be Famous (12-1 ML), especially in the paddock.
For more on debut runners, check out the Horse Racing Nation First Time Starter Insights Report.
Will Be Famous goes out for a lower-percentage trainer, and her pedigree suggests that she may excel on the grass going forward. She has worked three times from the gate, normally something that I don't view as a positive sign. But one of those gate drills was in 48 seconds flat at Belmont Park, and that was the best time of 67 others that day.
She sold for $80,000 as hip 423 at the OBS April sale and worked in 20.4 for a quarter, and she just looks fast, professional and like she was barely asked to move that quickly. If she gets in front early, she could upset the two favorites.
The first grass race of the meet, Race 3, seems wide open. A case could be made for almost all in this spot, and it seems as though No. 3 Takafumi (6-1 ML) may get overbet after having a bit of a trip last time out when he was elevated to second behind Grand Journey. He's first off the claim for trainer Mike Maker, who is 15 percent with this move.
No. 9 Grand Journey (6-1 ML) returns in this spot as well and is likely to be sitting closer than Takafumi. At equal prices, I'd want the one that will be in a better position early on. He's now first off the claim for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who boasts a 25 percent success rate.
No. 7 Tiberius Mercurius (6-1 ML) is the "other" Maker in here. He's second off a layoff, dropping in class, cutting back in distance from 1 1/4 miles, and gets a jockey upgrade to Luis Saez.
Trying the turf for the first time in Race 4, No. 7 Afjan (5-1 ML) has an abundance of turf pedigree. There must have been reasons that both Mike Maker and trainer Todd Pletcher, who had him previously, hadn't tried him on the grass previously, but he's supposed to relish this surface switch.
No. 5 Grand Cay (4-1 ML) has an interesting jockey change to Irad Ortiz Jr. who has ridden for trainer Shug McGaughey only six times this year. Blinkers go on, a move this trainer is successful with 12 percent of the time.
No. 3 Remote (2-1 ML) is certainly the horse to beat, but I've seen enough. He was the loose horse in the race that was won by Balthus, who then went on to win next out against allowance company. But he came back from that effort to finish second going this distance. With intriguing changes happening for other horses in the field, I'm firmly against Remote in this spot.
The fifth race closes out the early pick 5 and features short-priced horses that make sense, such as No. 4 Tommy Gun (3-1 ML), No. 2 Catching Cupid (7-2 ML), and No. 3 Majority Partner (9-2 ML). Some chatter about No. 1 Clingman (10-1 ML) is silenced for me based on trainer Mark Hennig's 0-for-31 status with maiden second-time-starters.
Tommy Gun is a first-time gelding and puts blinkers on, a move trainer George Weaver has had success with 31 percent of the time. He has early speed, but so does Majority Partner who also drops in for the tag for the first time. On the chance that these two duel early, I like No. 2 Catching Cupid to potentially stalk those two.
Catching Cupid goes out for trainer Charlie Baker, who looks to Joel Rosario to ride. Those two are 27 percent together. Catching Cupid is second off a layoff, a move Baker is 33 percent with.
Though there are many directions to go in the first turf sprint on the card, I couldn't get around the favorites in No. 9 King Moonracer (7-2 ML) and No. 4 Just Say When (3-1 ML). I don't see anyone as a standout 5 1/2-furlong specialist, and at least King Moonracer has tried the distance and finished third that day. He now cuts back from 7 furlongs and was second last out when coming in off the bench.
Just Say When has gone 5 furlongs before but is cutting back from a route on the Churchill Downs turf course. Many horses who last ran on the grass there have returned with much better performances in their next effort.
The intriguing price is No. 11 Me 'n Sap (15-1 ML) who steps up after winning last time out at over 30-1. That was a much improved effort than anything he's shown before, but at a price in this spot again, he's one to consider underneath.
Picks: 9, 4, 11
In the first test of the Wilson chute, No. 7 Tarabi (5-2 ML) is a deserving favorite. With trainer Cherie DeVaux being 0-for-9 second off a layoff, I was willing to look elsewhere a bit, but there's no doubt to me that she's the horse to beat.
No. 6 Favor (7-2 ML) is one of three for trainer Todd Pletcher, and I like the cutback in distance for her. She was wide in the Black-Eyed Susan on a track that preferred inside speed significantly throughout Preakness weekend. Of the Pletchers, this is the one I prefer to No. 1 Goddess of Fire (3-1 ML), who is winless since breaking her maiden, and No. 9 A Mo Reay (5-1 ML), who will be overbet on the MyRacehorse factor and who seems like she's a bit outclassed in this spot.
Picks: 7, 6, 2
Race 8 is arguably the best betting race on the card. No. 1 Canisy (4-1 ML) has become one of my "pets," and I absolutely loved her demeanor in the paddock on debut. She has the pedigree to match being a half sibling to nine-time winner and sprint specialist Carotari. Her game does appear to be routing, though, as she won her maiden pretty impressively over two very well meant Chad Brown first-time-starters.
The problem I have is that everyone will see her race last time where she was blocked in traffic until late and flock to her at the windows. However, the winner of that race broke dead last and outclosed the entire field to win going away. Was Canisy ever winning, and was she much the best? To me, it seems like the answer to both of those questions is no.
There are so many ways to go in here. No. 3 Myriskyaffair (7-2 ML) was second last time to Consumer Spending who went on to finish third in the Belmont Oaks. No. 6 Customer List (FR) (6-1 ML) could move forward second off the layoff for trainer Chad Brown and has the excuse of perhaps not appreciating the very soft going last time out at Penn National.
Even No. 7 Love to Run (12-1 ML) is intriguing, with some early speed and exiting the Churchill Downs turf course. No. 13 Santa Giulia (FR) (8-1 ML) gets in off the also-eligible list and could be dangerous. No. 12 Linda's Gift (10-1 ML) exits the same race as Canisy, having finished third that day.
Picks: 1, 3, 6, 7, 13, 12
Two-year-old fillies square off in the Schuylerville, and if No. 6 Me and My Shadow (7-2 ML) takes to the dirt as well as she handled the synthetic, she's the horse to beat on Beyer speed figures. With young horses, a step up in numbers is usually expected as racing progresses, but she had the highest last out figure of this group.
No. 9 Summer Promise (3-1 ML) has a stellar pedigree, being a half sibling to both Vexatious and Creative Cause. She worked a four-furlong bullet on July 3, the best of 97 other runners that day.
No. 1 Just Cindy's (5-2 ML) dam Jenda's Agenda won her first three starts as a 2-year-old. From her debut win, second-place finisher Corningstone came back to finish third in a stakes race at Prairie Meadows and fourth-place finisher Just Like Magic came back to win.
Picks: 9, 6, 1
Opening day comes to a close in Race 10, and I refuse to bet a Practical Joke on the turf at 7-2 ML. No. 5 Fast Corey (7-2 ML) is too short a price to take in this spot. She does have early speed, which is always dangerous, and she's dropping in for a tag for the first time. I get it, but this one feels like a bit of a phony to me. The other short price in here, No. 6 Abuse of Power (5-2 ML) makes plenty of sense and I won't be surprised if she wins, but I'm looking elsewhere.
No. 10 Dame Time (6-1 ML) is first off the claim for trainer George Weaver, who is 26 percent with this move. She just broke her maiden in an off-the-turf event, but she has shown plenty on the grass previously to make her a contender with this group.
No. 4 Rigby (8-1 ML) has shown early interest, cuts back from 7 furlongs to the 5 1/2 furlong distance and was second last time out to long-shot winner More Mango. More Mango did come back to run respectably well against much tougher allowance foes.
Picks: 4, 10, 6