How to play Thursday's Fair Grounds Pick 5 carryover

Fair Grounds has made beneficial changes for bettors this meet, including reduced takeout in the Pick 5 from 25 percent to 15 percent. A new Pick 6 has been added to the wagering menu with a $1 minimum, also with a 15 percent takeout. 

Thursday's card features a carryover in the late Pick 5 (races 4-8) of $10,576.86. For those playing the Pick 6, the Horses to Single Report offers an opportunity to take a stand in race 3 with No. 1 Star Syzygy (2-1 morning line). Over the last 200 races, this report has a 45.5 percent success rate, including 2-for-3 so far this meeting at Fair Grounds.

Race 4 kicks off the Pick 5 and will be run at six furlongs on the main track. Four of the five races in the sequence will be contested at this distance (with no turf for the time being).

The Post Position Bias Report shows that inside gates have more success. Horses breaking from the rail win at the highest rate overall at 19 percent. 

The Pace Report projects a slow early tempo in race 5, with No. 6 Beleout (6-1) as the expected leader. Beleout cuts back in distance from a mile and switches to the Courtney Dandridge barn for the first time. From a small sample size of 5, Dandridge is 40 percent with horses making their first start for the barn with a $7.68 return on investment. Look out for Beleout to steal it on the front end. 

In race 6, all contenders are shipping in from Delta Downs. According to the Shipper Report, horses who made their last start at Delta Downs have at 10 percent in the last three years. Recently, Delta shippers have won 17 percent of the time. 

With this variable failing to differentiate anyone in this field, Charting Horse Value assists in finding a price. No. 8 Touchdown Joe (12-1) gets the designated spot play "+" in a field that looks relatively comparable on paper. 

Race 7 is the only route race in the Pick 5, and the Sire Moves Report highlights contenders who should benefit from switching surfaces. No. 6 Betyar Azets (15-1) is by Sharp Azteca, whose progeny have had more success dirt routing than turf routing so far in his young stallion career.

Another one who should appreciate the surface switch is No. 7 Mo Bills (7-2). This Uncle Mo filly last contested a turf route with some give in the ground. Uncle Mo has more success with dirt routers than wet turf, winning at 21 percent vs. 15 percent. 

The top Power Pick in the finale is No. 4 Helaire (4-1). Citing successful connections with the jockey and trainer combination, Helaire broke his maiden last time out in career start 13. He'll face winners for the first time and has a propensity for running second, so perhaps Helaire is one to use underneath more so than on top.