How to play Saturday's late Pick 5 at Saratoga

Last week’s late Pick 5 was a little bit quieter than normal because the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks was all that anyone could talk about after it went official earlier in the card.

We got an absolute show with the stunning upset of Malathaat. Good on Maracuja, who since winning her maiden had walked into Malathaat and Search Results-related buzzsaws in her two graded stakes attempts. It took a lot of heart to take that Pletcher monster down, so congrats to the connections and trainer Rob Atras on a great win.

This week, however, will be anything but quiet in the late Pick 5 with three graded stakes on the card and loaded fields for each installment of the $250,000 Bowling Green (G2), $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1).

The Vanderbilt has been a cruel one to me over the past couple of years. Back in 2019, Mitole was riding a seven-race win streak that I marked off on my program as a free square, only to watch Imperial Hint absolutely dominate him in what would be his last loss.

I came back in 2020, not to be fooled again by another short-priced Steve Asmussen horse in Volatile going off as the horse to beat. I of course decided I needed to fade him because of my 2019 Mitole scar.

I was starting to get excited when my 17-1 shot, Turbo Drive pulled the allowance upset in the prior race and I was three legs through my Pick 5, and I was spread out in the last leg. I had Mind Control and Whitmore on my side, and I thought that I was in for a big one if I could just get them past Volatile.

In typical fashion, as opposed to the blazing fast pace that struck down Mitole in 2019, Volatile was left alone on the front end to set easy fractions of 23.46 seconds and 46.67 seconds en route to a front-running score.

I would have hit the last leg with a ticket that paid $2,357 with the 1-5 favorite, Volatile involved. It still stings thinking about what I could have reeled in had I gotten Mind Control or Whitmore, who went on to win the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, home that day.

In the end, we cannot live in the past, and we can only control what we do from here. My goal is to take all those lessons learned and apply them to hitting this sequence this year.

I will not let the Vanderbilt defeat me this time. Good luck this weekend and remember how amazing it is to have such incredible racing on a day like Saturday.

Race 7: Allowance, 3-and-up fillies and mares, one mile, turf (Purse $103,000)

The mile on the inner turf has been speed favoring to say the least in the 2021 summer. However, the field for this allowance race does not seem to offer much at all.

The only horse that has shown any propensity to go out for the lead is #9 Pecatonica out of the Tom Bush barn. If he can clear heading into that first turn, he could be loose on the lead with a real chance at a nice price.

#8 Love And Thunder has come across the pond to the Chad Brown barn and put in two respectable efforts at this level, and was a nose away at the mile distance last out at Belmont. My guess is she will be the likely favorite and a must use on any ticket.

#2 Invincible Gal gets some class relief stepping out of stakes company for the first time since she broke her maiden here at Saratoga in 2020. She is the class of the field on paper and is another serious closing threat down the lane.

On the big ticket, I also tossed in #6 Secret Time and #7 High Opinion. They both have strong closing kicks, and even though I do not like them as much as the #8 and #9 above, they have the speed figures to be right there at the end.

Big Ticket Option: 2,6,7,8,9

Thrifty Ticket Option: 2,8,9

Race 8: Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1), 3-and-up, six furlongs, dirt (Purse $350,000)

This is a wildly intriguing version of the Vanderbilt with some of the best sprinters of the past few years coming together for a great showdown.

Hard-knockers #3 Firenze Fire and #6 Whitmore return from last year’s race, but there are plenty of younger 4-year-old horses that can prove as dangerous as Volatile was last year.

My ticket must start with one of those younger horses, #2 Mischevious Alex. Since moving over to the Saffie Joseph barn for the 2021 season, he has a perfect sprint record (3: 3-0-0) with an average Beyer Speed Figure of 103. I do not see another speed horse in here that is going to outduel him on the front-end, so I have to use him with Irad Ortiz Jr. back in the saddle.

There’s an overload of early speed in this race. #4 Strike Power is going for the lead along with #9 Special Reserve, and #3 Firenze Fire won’t be far off. If there are no major scratches, I fully expect the half-mile to be run in fewer than 45 seconds, which could set up for a stalker or closer.

That is why I used #5 Three Technique and #6 Whitmore to round out my ticket. If the speed holds, I expect this to be Mischevious Alex’s race to lose, but if it collapses, look for one of those two to be running down the center late.

I know I am going against the grain by fading #3 Firenze Fire, but for whatever reason, he is just not the same horse outside of Belmont. His only victory at Saratoga in seven tries was his 2-year-old victory in the Sanford Stakes (G3) back in 2017. There is enough evidence to suggest he just does not like it up here as much.

Finally, I tossed #1 Lexitonian in on the big ticket, simply because he is a horse that I have never been able to figure out. He will run off the board by double-digit lengths and then absolutely scare you to death in his next race out when you toss him. I know he will be long, but he’s going to bounce back off his abysmal Metropolitan Handicap (G1) run, even if it is just to stop everyone’s heart in the final 20 yards.

Big Ticket Option: 1,2,5,6

Thrifty Ticket Option: 2,5,6

Race 9: Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles, dirt (Purse $600,000)

It is almost sacrilege that the Jim Dandy is the second-most important race on the card, but this field really is all about one horse.

I kept trying to beat #5 Essential Quality during the Kentucky Derby prep season and he kept grinding out excellent races. He is going to be odds-on without question, and the fact that he is really treating this race as a step down between his triumph in the Belmont Stakes and what could be an Eclipse-clinching victory in the Travers Stakes (G1) later this summer means that it would be a shock if he did not continue his dominance of the 3-year-old division.

I singled him on the thrifty ticket and only added in #3 Weyburn to the big ticket. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens does give his horses some time off between races, but when he works horses in the morning, he really works them. Weyburn has 5 works since we moved into June and three of them were bullets. He also has a second by a neck to Mandaloun down at Monmouth Park.

It will be very interesting to see if #2 Masqueparade rates behind Weyburn or forces the issue. I think Weyburn is sneakily stronger than Masqueparade, and if he is left completely alone on the lead, Essential Quality might have to pass a very game horse in the stretch to pull out the win.

Big Ticket Option: 3,5

Thrifty Ticket Option: 5

Race 10: Bowling Green (G2), 4-and-up, 1 3/8 miles, turf (Purse $250,000)

I have always loved the three-turn turf routes at Saratoga. There really have been so many incredible races between the Bowling Green and Sword Dancer throughout the years.

Sadler’s Joy & Hunter O’Riley are some of the old-guard horses that I used to love watching. If anyone remembers last year’s result, it will remind you of how heartbreaking it was for Sadler’s Joy in what should have been his deserving last victory at Saratoga.

Anyway, we move on to this year’s version where two former winners of past Bowling Greens are my favorites to get a repeat in #1 Channel Cat and #5 Channel Maker. They are both out of English Channel, both bred for this distance, and both have proven themselves here in the past.

For a young gun in the field, I really like the way that #7 Moon Over Miami is trending. Trainer Bill Mott gave him a shot going a bit longer last year at Kentucky Downs and he pulled off an impressive victory over that tough course going 1 5/16 miles. Since then, he has been extremely competitive with Junior Alvarado in the saddle, all going 1 3/8 miles or longer despite not getting to the winner’s circle. He gets a nice little freshening for this race and could be sitting on a big race.

Finally, I tossed in Chad Brown’s Chilean shipper, #3 Breakpoint, because it is hard to ignore a horse that was 5-for-5 and 3-for-3 in Group 1 races abroad, especially one that is in Chad Brown’s care. I know that his first race in the U.S. was underwhelming, but the fact that he shows up here, in one of the premier turf routes of the Saratoga meet, makes me think that he is dangerous.

Big Ticket Option: 1,3,5,7

Thrifty Ticket Option: 1,5,7

Race 11: Claiming, 3-and-up, 1 1/16 miles, turf (Purse $55,000)

This is a tough race to end the sequence on, because there are not many horses that I can make a case for not having a shot in here.

A lot of these horses had periods in their careers that would have made owners/trainers/handicappers scoff at the idea that they’d be running for a $25,000 tag instead of stakes races on a Saturday card at Saratoga. End of the day, here we are, and we need to get the money in the last.

Let us start with #1 Vettori Kin, who has been running some consistent, albeit disappointing races since entering the Wayne Potts barn. What I do like in the past performances is he was claimed off a victory at this level three back, tried in tougher spots where he was just slightly overmatched, and now dropped back in at the same level. If he could win at this level in April, I think he could win here now.

#3 Morocco is another horse I can get behind. Joseph is usually strong off the claim, which makes Morocco’s clunker last out a bit confusing. A little rest and some consistent works make me think he’s going to be ready to fire off the layoff.

#7 Tizzarunner is a tough horse to get a handle on, but one that I cannot ignore. I am not sure if it’s the connection of Mike Maker and Ortiz (winning at 27 percent in 2021) or if it is the 8-year-old’s back class, but I could not get away from him.

Finally, I really like #8 Hieroglyphics, first off of the claim for Domenick Schettino. I know claiming off Maker is usually a losing strategy, but this horse was running consistently around a 90 Beyer figure last fall and then came back to win at Belmont in May off a lengthy layoff. He must be considered the class of this field, even if “class” is being used as a relative term only.

I threw in #10 Sharp Prospect because I do not exactly grasp the quality of those races he was winning on turf at Fair Grounds and Indiana Grand, but he has reeled off three straight victories on the lawn, so he could be a decent price with a real shot in the nightcap.

Big Ticket Option: 1,3,7,8,10

Thrifty Ticket Option: 1,3,7,8

FINAL Big Ticket: 2,6,7,8,9/1,2,5,6/3,5/1,3,5,7/1,3,7,8,10 ($400)

FINAL Thrifty Ticket: 2,8,9/2,5,6/5/1,5,7/1,3,7,8 ($54)

No matter where you fall on these races, it is going to be an amazing Saturday in Saratoga. We will see how it all plays out at the Spa.