How to bet Aqueduct's $46,486 Pick 6 carryover

Adaptability is an essential quality for a handicapper. If you’ve been playing Aqueduct lately, then you’re aware of the ever-shifting biases. One day there’s a gold rail. The next a majority of winners will close down the outside. Update Friday morning after scratches: In Race 3, selections are now 1, 5, 6. In Race 8, selections are now 1, 3, 4.

Race 3 (Leg 1): Horse Racing Nation’s Pace Report has this race listed as the hottest pace of the day for the track. There is no easy way to begin the sequence, but taking a stand against the morning- line favorite at 9-5 in No. 1 Boss Cara should knock some others out. These are $25,000 claiming fillies and mares 4 and up going 6 1/2 furlongs, and three horses are on the ticket in No. 2 Thegoddessofsnakes (2-1 ML), No. 5 New York Banker (8-1 ML), and No. 6 Flower Moon (7-2 ML). Thegoddessofsnakes has the highest Beyer speed figure in the field at 70 and might not have been a fan of the off going last time out. She now drops in class from allowance company. New York Banker set the pace in her last start, was passed in the stretch and re-rallied on the inside to break her maiden. Keeping track biases in mind, after watching race replays from every other race on the card that day (Jan. 8), it appeared as though no definitive bias was present. With that in mind, that effort could be competitive here. Flower Moon was against an inside track bias in her last start and now drops to the lowest level of competition she’s ever faced. Picks: 2, 5, 6

Race 4 (Leg 2): The first of two singles in the sequence is No. 3 Eucharist (5-1 ML) in this $20,000 claiming race for 4-year-olds and up going 6 1/2 furlongs. He’s coming in off back-to-back wins. On Jan. 9, this horse was a late scratch after rearing up and getting loose. Thankfully both horse and rider were unharmed, and he returned with a monster performance (outside-bias aided, however) on Feb. 3. Trainer Michelle Giangiulio is 5-for-10 at the meet, and while other horses in this race haven’t shown much lately, Eucharist seems like one who is headed in the right direction. He’ll have to prove that his effort last out wasn’t solely because of the surface favoring outside horses, but his win two back instills confidence that it wasn’t just a fluke.
 

Single: 3

Race 5 (Leg 3): In this allowance optional claiming race for fillies and mares 4 and up going 1 mile, two horses stand out as having the fastest Beyer speed figures in the field. No. 2 Ice Princess (9-5 ML) drops in class and has been second best in her last three efforts. She also hasn’t been able to catch a dry track, which she most likely will get on Friday. She’s the class of this field but can’t be completely trusted. No. 6 Customerexperience (4-1 ML) goes out for the aforementioned trainer Giangiulio. She’s been a popular claim, as she’s been in 10 different barns since her debut in 2019. Now stepping up in class, her Beyer speed figure last out of 93 makes her a player. Picks: 2, 6

Race 6 (Leg 4): In this $25,000 claiming contest for 4-year-olds and up at 1 mile, No. 3 Mister Candy Ride (9-5 ML) drops to the lowest level he ever has run against and puts blinkers on. This is a move trainer Linda Rice has had success with (23 percent). He had some excuses in his last race, such as a bump at the break and being against the track bias, but he can’t be completely trusted at a short price again. For more coverage No. 5 Make It in NY (3-1 ML) goes out a second time for trainer Rob Atras, who is winning at 21 percent. No. 8 Straight Skinny (6-1) has been in form lately and has early speed to his advantage as well. These two have been running against each other lately, and both return to claiming company from an allowance race where they were just out of depth. Picks: 3, 5, 8 Race 7 (Leg 5): The second single, No. 2 Mashnee Girl (5-2 ML), does have to prove her last effort wasn’t just because of the track bias. But she enters this allowance optional claiming race for New York-bred fillies and mares 4 and up going 1 mile with the highest Beyer speed figure, 85, and there are other qualities to suggest this might not have been a completely inflated win. Her last race was her first time routing on the dirt since October of 2020. Prior to that, she had returned to the races in September 2021 with three efforts on the grass even though she had broken her maiden in an off-the-turf 7-furlong race on the dirt. Perhaps she has found the surface and distance where she can be effective. Some might be intrigued by No. 8 Cazilda Fortytales (4-1 ML), but this is her first time running at a distance further than 7 furlongs in her 15-race career, and she never has won a race without Irad Ortiz Jr, or Jose Ortiz in the saddle. Andy Hernandez will be riding on Friday. Single: 2 Race 8 (Leg 6): The most puzzling way to end the sequence, a maiden claiming race for 4-year-olds and up in for a $20,000 tag going 7 furlongs, was a process of elimination. No. 1 War Novel (20-1 ML) is first off the claim for trainer Ray Handal, an angle he has had success with (21 percent), and is a first-time gelding. First-time starter No. 3 Stone Surprise (10-1 ML) was a $45,000 purchase and debuts for the tag, something that isn’t usually a good sign but any new face in here might be able to get the job done. Horse Racing Nation's First Timer Report offers insight. His sire, Giant Surprise, is 15 percent with debut runners and has an HRN Impact Score of +26 percent. No. 7 Motion to Strike (4-1 ML) was aided by an inside track bias last time out, but just might prove to be faster than the rest early and able to outlast them late.  Picks: 1, 3, 7