How to play Aqueduct's $31,130 Pick 6 carryover

Foggy weather cancelled Thursday's finale where only two horses were covered in the $1 Pick 6--a situation that deprived at least one bettor the chance to scoop the pool but provides everyone else the opportunity to chase the $31,130 carryover again on Friday.

Throughout Thursday an outside bias persisted unlike the inside bias observed over the past few weeks. The first few races will provide some clues as to how the track is playing today but these selections assume yesterday's conditions - horses inside will be disadvantaged and outside horses will be aided. Posts 1-2 were winless on Thursday an 0-for-16 performance that included a 6-5 favorite and a pair of 5-2 shots.

Race 4 - The sequence begins with fillies and mares four and up at the $35,000 claiming level going 1 mile. No. 5 Shanes Pretty Lady (5-1 ML) is first off the claim for trainer Rudy Rodriguez who wins 30 percent with this move. He also has success with first time blinkers (19 percent).

Shanes Pretty Lady has a win over a sloppy track two races back and may get similar conditions with more precipitation forecasted. The distance is the question for her having not had much success when routing before however that was against much tougher company. Aside from her several horses are coming out of the same January 6th race. The one to use is No. 9 Sweet Mission (7-2 ML). Number one in the Horse Racing Nation’s Power Picks she and No. 3 Alpine Queen bumped at the start last out. She ran on to finish 3rd while No. 1 Kerik (4-1 ML) got 2nd that day. That was Sweet Mission’s first dirt attempt. With the outside post, she’s preferred over Kerik and Alpine Queen. 

Picks: 5, 9

Picks: 11, 10

Race 6 - In this starter allowance for four-year-olds-and-up at 1 mile the favored entry for Linda Rice makes sense. However, the Horse Racing Nation Hot Jockey report instills confidence in an attempt to beat them at a price. No. 6 Forty Two Ace (15-1 ML) is coming in off his first win which was for the $25,000 claiming tag.

Jockey Mike Luzzi rides who has an +83 percent HRN Impact score. This is a considerable step up and he’ll have to get faster but trainer Charlie Baker doesn’t claim many horses. No. 8 Blu Grotto (9-2 ML) was ridden in a different style than usual with no success last time out. That may have been an attempt to take advantage of the previous inside bias.

Perhaps the outside bias will now be to his advantage and jockey Trevor McCarthy (+34 percent Impact) is certainly capable of adapting to how the track is playing. No. 7 Extreme (6-1 ML) stretches out from a few sprint efforts and comes in off a third place finish last out while having to go very wide, something that might be beneficial if repeated in this spot.

Picks: 8, 6, 7

Race 7 - A seven-furlong contest for allowance fillies and mares four and up offers another opportunity to try and beat the favorite. Three horses come in off of wins. No. 7 Gallina (12-1 ML) broke her maiden at this distance last out even after being bumped at the break. No. 8 Magnetique (6-1 ML) is first off the claim for trainer Gregory DiPrima who is 25 percent with a small sample size of 8. No. 9 Stencil (8-1 ML) will have to get a bit faster but now gets to be aided by a track bias twice. 

Picks: 8, 7, 9

Race 8 - Outside horses once again look appealing in this allowance optional claiming mile and an eighth journey for four year olds and up. No. 6 Mystic Night (5-2 ML) drops down in class from a no show performance against stakes company. If this horse was drawn towards the inside this would be an easy fade at a short price.The track may help him be more competitive though as will the lesser competition.

No. 7 Croatian (8-1 ML) comes in off layoff since October and will be going first off the claim for trainer Anthony Dutrow. This horse runs consistent Beyer speed figures and gets hot jockey Trevor McCarthy in the saddle. 

Picks: 7, 6

Race 9 - Maiden claimers in for a $25,000 tag close out the sequence going one mile. Of these New York bred fillies and mares four and up No. 7 Mondeuse (10-1 ML) is the wild single after not loving anybody else in this field. The Horse Racing Nation Pace Report identifies her as the early leader.

She makes her dirt debut after 7 unsuccessful turf tries to break her maiden. When a turf horse is trying the dirt for the first time one of the most discouraging factors can be the kickback from other horses in front of them.

If Mondeuse is on the early lead she won’t have to contend with that. Of 14 runners to switch from the turf to the dirt trainer Jeffrey Englehart is successful with this move 43 percent of the time. Several runners in here come out of the same race, none of which can be trusted at a short price.

Pick: 7

Ticket:

R4 - 5, 9

R5 - 10, 11

R6 - 6-8

R7 - 7-9

R8 - 6, 7

R9 - 7

Cost - $72.00