How to bet 2-year-old races in September
Debut runners are a fact of any handicapper's existence. They occur at all tracks and levels of racing. Although horseplayers always should exercise discipline in wagering on the races they're most comfortable with, the prevalence of multi-race wagers as the lowest takeout opportunities in the game makes familiarizing yourself with all variables of handicapping essential.
Through the first two weeks of September, 5-star debut runners are 24-for-105 with a respectable -6 percent ROI. That's a decent number considering you're betting on every one of them, including multiple horses per race in some instances.
If you're a believer in "follow the money," then the numbers are even better. 5-star horses who are 7-2 or less have won 18 of 50 races for a flat-bet profit of 7.9 percent.
There's value on the opposite end of the spectrum, too. 1-star horses have won only 2.5 percent of races for a -75 percent ROI, and they're 0-for-9 at 5-1 or less this month.
The above chart shows a complete account of how each rating has done since the report's inception. We're now at nearly 12,000 debut runners rated, and it's clear that the 4-5 ratings consistently win more than they should while the lowest-rated steeds are terrible bets. Perhaps most interesting, though, is how inefficient the morning line is on these horses, which could present opportunity in "blind" legs of multi-race wagers.
Of course, it's not all about just looking at a number, which is why the First-Timer Power Ratings Report includes trainer and sire stats with categories germane to today's variables such as track, distance and surface.
Speaking of trainer intent, it's impossible to ignore how well some trainers have done at the Churchill Downs September meet the last five years – especially relative to how they're typically bet. The chart below is filtered for dirt only because there is no turf racing this meet.