How to bet a rainy Kentucky Oaks undercard

With rain highly likely for Kentucky Oaks Friday at Churchill Downs, horseplayers are working overtime to factor in off-track conditions to their handicapping. Horse Racing Nation’s Sire Moves Report takes the time-consuming “if’s” out of the equation with a section specifically for turf to dirt angles. Four out of the thirteen races are carded for the grass. If moved to the main track, Sire Moves predicts which horses would either benefit or be at a disadvantage.

Race 3: Part of a favored entry, 1-Q F Seventy Five actually moves up on a dry track quite significantly. Those numbers take a serious turn for the worse however with any moisture in the surface which is what is most likely. The greatest beneficiary of a surface switch would be 4-Myopic. Candy Ride (ARG) progeny are successful on a wet track when dirt routing 21 percent of the time in comparison to a 12 percent success routing on wet turf. The Horse Racing Nation Impact Score is positive as well, moving from -4 percent to 18 percent. 

Race 5: Chad Brown trainees need not worry in the Grade 3 Modesty Stakes. Both 1-Fluffy Socks and 8-Bleecker Street are well supported if this race is run on dirt. Sire Slumber (GB) has limited progeny, but of 2 to attempt routing on wet dirt, 1 was successful. Quality Road, sire of Bleecker Street, has better win percentages with his progeny routing on wet dirt than on wet turf. 

Race 8: A different story in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes for Chad Brown trainees 3-McKulick (GB) and 5-Dolce Zel (FR) were this race to be rained off the turf. Both sires have been unsuccessful thus far at producing winners routing on wet dirt, though the small sample size or a nonexistent sample size must be considered as well. The third contender for Brown, 8-Spicer, would benefit most of his entrants in this situation.