How to bet the Pick 5 $56,630 carryover Friday at Ellis
Nobody picked the Pick 5 on Aug. 7 at Ellis Park, which means a big opportunity awaits bettors when racing returns to Kentucky on Friday in the form of a $56,630 carryover in the Pick 5, which begins with race 4 at 2:14 p.m. EDT.
Four of the five races are maiden races, including a pair of 2-year-old maiden special weights as races 5 and 6. The double starts with a one-mile grass affair and continues with a 5 1/2-furlong dirt race. Five first-time starters are entered in the former and seven debut in the latter, which makes Horse Racing Nation's First-Timer Power Ratings Report indispensable when tackling this carryover.
And, it's free!
The image above shows the rating for each of the first-time starters in both of those races. A 5 rating wins 22.8 percent and – as measured by the HRN Impact score – outperforms the wagering public by 6.8 percent. The HRN Impact uses the win pool to determine the expected number of wins (pool instead of odds to account for takeout) and measures that number against actual wins.
Based on the morning line, neither of the 5-star ratings in either race is expected to take a ton of money. Thus, for Pick 5 purposes, I'd be inclined to use all four no matter what.
What to do with the four-star ratings is a little trickier. They win 15.1 percent of the time for a +9.6 percent HRN Impact. So in general, they're actually better bets despite winning less often.
Thankfully, the First-Timer Power Ratings Report provides added detail for making those decisions that maybe are not quite as obvious. (For example, just as a 5 rating is a very likely use for me no matter what, a 1 is a guaranteed toss. They only win 4.8 percent of the time for a -16.3 percent HRN Impact score).
#1 Traffic Master would be an example of a 4-star I'd upgrade based on the information available in the details. Obviously, the 15-1 is alluring, but beyond that trainer Mark Casse and sire Cross Traffic fit the turf route configuration.
Below are all the efficacy numbers by rating.