DeRosa: How to bet the Mahoning Pick 4 with carryover
There already was $11,380.66 in the Pick 4 pool Monday at Mahoning Valley, and the back half of the card provides a challenging puzzle for Monday players looking to pad their bankrolls and Christmas stockings.
Keeping in mind David Sklansky’s Fundamental Theorem of Poker & Inside the Pylons’ approach to wagering referenced in our last carryover chase, my first thought when plotting my tickets to go after this sequence was, “Which favorite(s) is (are) most vulnerable?”
There are three options:
Race 6, No. 2 Sharks Cove, 2-to-1 morning line in a field of 7 with 6 betting interests
Race 7, No. 5 Ananroad, 8-to-5 morning line in a field of 8
Race 8, No. 8 Ol’ Ned, 6-to-5 morning line in a field of 9
I see opportunity in playing this sequence because we have the one-two punch of the added money AND I don’t see a 2-5-8 cold pick 3 “closing the show” to quote Mahoning track announcer Matt Hook.
Unfortunately, it is the shortest priced of the three (#8 in race 8) that I see as the most likely winner. I am hoping that my competition will lean on one of (or both of!) the aforementioned shorter prices in races 6 and/or 7 with the thought of being able to use some or all of the debut runners in race 8.
I am going to resist this urge, however, based in part on information from Horse Racing Nation’s picks page.
The shipper report tells us that debut runners have won only 6 percent not only at this meeting but also over the past 3 years, so that’s a pretty steady poor strike rate.
The pace report tells us that of those who have run in race 8, there isn’t a lot of early zip, but the big favorite, No. 8 Ol’ Ned, has Brisnet Pace Ratings that augur well for a gate-to-wire performance.
As for race 6, No. 2 Sharks Cove will be on nearly every ticket, and with my lean in the last will choose instead to use Nos. 3, 5, and 6 here. As you can see above, the Horse Racing Nation Pace Report projects a slow pace in race 6, and it’s No. 6 Hey Sach who has the best chance to be on the lead. No. 3 Breezy Money is the other speed in the race and the HRN Power Pick. No. 5 Centsofwander has solid current form.
In race 7, No. 5 Ananroad is taking a big drop in class after several speed-and-fade efforts against better, but he will have company upfront, which could make things interesting for No. 4 Johnny Cab – a dead closer – and No. 7 Tizway’s Wild Son, another class dropper who I expect to get first-run on Johnny Cab.
Wagering strategy:
ALL with 3, 5, 6 with 2, 4, 7, 8 with 8 ($60)
1, 3, 6, 7, 10 with 3, 5, 6 with 4, 7 with 1, 2, 7, 8 ($60)
TOTAL: $120