Manocchio: How to bet for value in the 2025 Belmont Stakes

The top three finishers from Kentucky Derby 2025 return for a rematch in the Belmont Stakes, and it is likely that the Derby and Preakness winners, Sovereignty and Journalism, will take the majority of the public's wagering dollars.

An exacta featuring the top two choices likely will not pay enough to make the bet worth it. With that in mind, it is wise to look for an alternative to the two favorites.

Though Journalism is the horse to beat and my top pick in the race, the gap between him and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Baeza is narrower than the morning-line odds would indicate. 

Baeza already has run two competitive races against Journalism and enters the Belmont as a royally bred colt on an ascending pattern for a trainer, John Shirreffs, whose horses tend to get better with experience. Baeza was farther back then he should have been in the Kentucky Derby after drawing the extreme outside post, and he should be able to sit a perfect tracking trip on Saturday. He has a great chance of splitting the two favorites and creating his own path to victory. 

I do not believe that Journalism will regress after his huge effort in the Preakness, but I recognize that a regression is certainly in the realm of possibilities as he runs for the third time in five weeks. It also is possible that Sovereignty is a good horse who was made to look even better because of the wet track he enjoyed in Kentucky. Baeza is fresh, and from a speed-figure perspective, he already has proven to be at an elite level on fast and wet surfaces.

The questions surrounding the favorites and the value of a 4-1 morning-line make Baeza the right runner to key in exotic wagering. Below I analyze the best way to bet on Saturday's Belmont Stakes. I am using $1 and $2 increments for these examples to show the scale of preference for each wager.

$2 exacta box: Baeza and Journalism 

$1 exacta box: Baeza and Sovereignty

$2 trifecta: Baeza/Journalism - Baeza/Journalism - Sovereignty/Rodriguez

$1 trifecta: Baeza/Sovereignty - Baeza/Sovereignty - Journalism/Rodriguez

$2 superfecta: Baeza/Journalism - Baeza/Journalism - Sovereignty/Rodriguez - Hill Road

$1 superfecta: Baeza/Sovereignty - Baeza/Sovereignty - Journalism/Rodriguez - Hill Road

$1 superfecta: Baeza/Journalism - Baeza/Journalism - Hill Road - Sovereignty/Rodriguez 

$.50 superfecta: Baeza/Sovereignty - Baeza/Sovereignty - Hill Road - Journalism/Rodriguez

In the above wagers, Baeza does not have to win, but he must run no worse than second. Sovereignty and Journalism are logically included in any trifecta as is Rodriguez, a talented colt in his own right, in case he is able to get brave on the lead and hang around late.

The late-running Hill Road is not a win contender, but he looks like the perfect runner to pick up pieces. He is included in the third and fourth spot of the superfectas, opening up the possibility of hitting a nice score if either Journalism or Sovereignty does not show up with a good performance Saturday.