How to bet Woodbine Mohawk mandatory-payout Super High 5

I have to start this by giving that Punxsutawney, Pa., rodent some credit. When I turned on the news and that dude cosplaying as Sir Topham Hatt said the gopher saw his shadow, I did not think we would have a mandatory payout in the Jackpot Hi-5 pool at Woodbine Mohawk Park six weeks later.

The groundhog, last I checked, was only into meteorology. But, sure enough, here I am sharing insight on a mandatory payout of the super high 5 pool at Woodbine Mohawk Park somewhere around six weeks later. Game recognizes game, groundhog. 

The Jackpot Hi-5 will be forced to payout its carryover of $131,002.73 on Saturday night in the final race of the card at Woodbine Mohawk Park, race 14. Post time is 11:45 p.m. EDT, and we are dealt a race for the mandatory payout that could play incredibly obvious, but maybe the overflow field of 12 can provide some extra chaos? 

Last time we met for the Hi-5 payout on Boxing Day 2024, the race was won by the one horse that I thought had no right to be a short price or much of a lock at all. My only guess is the connections must have read the horse my analysis, and he proceeded to destroy out of spite. Again, game recognizes game. 

Are we doomed to another Hi-5 payout that only just grazes four figures? Or is there a chance this thing pays enough to buy a 2012 Nissan Altima with at least a hundred-thousand miles on it but a solid engine that can handle about a hundred thousand more? 

Here’s how it provides only mild returns:

The morning line favorite holds legitimate merit inside of this race, not to mention the last super high  payout was won out of the 10-hole (that’s just a fun fact, though). Kolby Two Step has promptly regained form following his sick scratch early in the month, and his 1:52.3 victory last out could easily crush this field.

His main obstacle out of the 10 hole would be any tremendous amount of speed materializing inside, for that would either pin him outside to overwork through the first quarter or even allow him to take back and find a methodical path into the race. Even in the worst-case scenario, he has a decent likelihood to pull doom out of the fire. So as a gambler, I find it demoralizing to say: the chalk has a chance.

In regards to other speed, at least three horses will likely be out and rolling. All Bets On Tex, he was rolling out of post 10 last out before Bob reined him back for a mid-ground seat. Rockabilly Rebel N, McNair will fire this guy off the wings, especially since he had loads of pace last week but raced locked at the pylons. Pipewrench Charlie, I’m most questionable about him. If Cullen leaves with him, the favorite may be in trouble. But Cullen could be inclined to take back. The speed will have to hold their ground to the inside, because if Kolby Two Step crosses over easily to the quarter or can tuck into a seat at the pylons, their chances of winning greatly decrease.

So what are we to do if not suffer?

Suffering is not an option. That’s as true in life as it is in figuring out this sequence. We can either accept Kolby Two Step as an easy single on top for ticket cost and look for prices underneath or try to outsmart the crowd with a higher-priced winner. And maybe both if you just got that kind of money to throw around. I’m not judging. I’m not. I won’t judge. I promise.

Rockabilly Rebel N should be in a striking spot. My only concern, given the speed present to his outside, is that he likely will rely on the seas parting at the pylons for a win, like he did in that March 17 victory. He’ll take play too, so there’s a part of me that feels he’s probably better as an underneath key just to try and leverage better-priced horses in other areas of the ticket.

All Bets On Tex seems like he should be an underneath key, but he also has been trending upward with each mile to actually make him a viable win candidate. He gets an improved post this time around and seems like he just needs two things: to not sit first over and to have clear ground in the stretch. I could see a scenario though where he’s going to the gate at 4-1, so evaluate that value at your own discretion and bankroll.

I have no clue how to evaluate the inside two horses. Speedwise, they appear capable of competing against this group. Elliot Moose appears more likely to take play between the two of them though, which is okay by me. Because sure, Nightime Dancer established three starts ago that maybe he’s a cheaper-class type of horse, but this is a much weaker bunch than he’s faced in his last two starts. So much like that race three starts ago, perhaps escaping steeper hills awakens this guy again?

Order One To Go is also intriguing. If we are to believe that his two races at Flamboro tightened him enough to rekindle his form from the end of last season, he’s also a legitimate contender. But that backclass could lure some decent betting; I would be interested at maybe 8-1?

So, some ideas I have for approaching this ticket then are:

The simple, obvious, boring way: 10 / 3,6,9 / 3,6,9 / 1,2,4,8,12 / 1-9, 12 = $42 for $.20. This could, at worst, pay $500. At best? I’d guess $1,500. 

The less likely, but has a chance at a really nice return: 2,3,9 / 6,10 / 6,10 / 1-4, 7-9, 12 / 1-4, 7-9, 12 = $50.40 for $.20. This is a bit more precarious – and ideally, a bankroll which could wheel  and Rockabilly Rebel and Kolby Two Step in the fourth spot would provide decent coverage with still strong returns. That investment in total would amount to $100.80 and would be open to a return possibly even in five figures. 

Going as wide in the underneath spots is not ideal, but this does feel like a field of a few strong horses while the rest are insanely trip and drive dependent. And in a race where really the only horse that appears to have no path in the race is Wind Blown, it really can only mean one thing: he will win for fun.

Horse Racing Nation coverage of wagering opportunities at Woodbine Mohawk is provided in partnership via a marketing agreement with Woodbine Entertainment.