How to bet Saturday's Saratoga Late Pick 5 on a budget
The wager has a minimum bet of 50 cents, and once again, I will use one of my favorite cost-effective Pick 5 strategies, the spread ticket formula. It would cost $1,250 to lump all of my contenders on one ticket, but the spread ticket formula knocks the price down to a much more reasonable $50.
Let's see if we can cash on a budget.
Race 7 (G3 Amsterdam, 6.5f)
Primary - #3 ENGAGE
Secondary - #5 Strike Power, #2 Promises Fulfilled, #6 World of Trouble
Analysis: #3 Engage (8-5) fired exacta shots in all six outings and graduated at Saratoga last summer. The fresh Chad Brown runner projects the right stalking trip under his regular pilot Jose Ortiz. #5 Strike Power (5-1) faded after chasing fast fractions from post 11 (wide trip) in the G2 Woody Stephens June 9. He went all the way in both of his sprint wins, but he is unlikely to see the front with Woody Stephens pace players #2 Promises Fulfilled (7-2) and #6 World of Trouble (5-2) in here. #1 Barry Lee (10-1) and #7 Soutache (12-1) could work out decent trips behind the speed, but I do not think that either are good enough to compete for the win in this event. They do seem like interesting exotics players. #4 Old Time Revival (15-1) adds speed to the mix.
Race 8 (G1 Alfred G. Vanderbiltt, 6f)
Primary - #7 DONE DEAL, #4 Imperial Hint
Secondary - #6 Mr. Crow, #3 Warrior’s Club, #1 Switzerland
Analysis: #7 Done Deal (8-1) is a razor sharp early/pressing type stepping up in class. The lightly raced 5-year-old gelding fired a local 5f bullet for this July 21 and looms the upsetter. #4 Imperial Hint (6-5) has a nose for the wire, and the sharp early/pressing type exits a game tally in the G2 True North. He is 6-for-9 with a pair of runner-ups at this distance. #6 Mr. Crow (8-1) is not as sharp as he was last year, but maybe he can rediscover his good form at Saratoga. He picks up the services of Jose Ortiz, and he romped in both local starts last year. #3 Warrior’s Club (9-2) is a decent sort for Wayne Lukas, and he might be good enough to land a share. In his two local outings last summer, he missed by a neck and won by three lengths. #1 Switzerland (2-1) shoots for his fifth straight win, and he keeps stepping up and running faster. He looms an inside pace player at the very least. #2 Petrov (20-1) is off his game currently. He cruised in his lone local outings last summer. #5 Swetontheladies (20-1) is a late running sprinter with soft numbers. He can be used to fill out trifecta and superfecta tickets.
Race 9 (G2 Bowling Green, 11f inner turf)
Primary - #3 BIGGER PICTURE, #8 Money Multiplier
Secondary - #6 Sadler’s Joy, #7 Hi Happy, #1 Highland Sky
Analysis: #3 Bigger Picture (8-1) might be rounding back into form following a rallying 3rd in the G1 United Nations. He reconnects with winning rider Jose Ortiz, and he missed by a neck in this event last summer, and followed that up with a close-up show finish in the G1 Sword Dancer. #8 Money Multiplier (2-1) ran well in his last two graded turf routes at Monmouth, and he fired trifecta shots in all four local turf tries, including back-to-back place finishes in the Sword Dancer. #6 Sadler’s Joy (7-2) exits back-to-back place finishes vs. similar grade one foes. Last summer, he was a close third in this event, and won the Sword Dancer. #7 Hi Happy (5-2) was right there in his last five starts, including wins in the G2 Pan American and G1 Man o’ War. He owns early/pressing versatility, and John Velazquez takes the call for Todd Pletcher. #1 Highland Sky (12-1) exits a nice optional claiming win at this distance, and runner-up Call Provision returned to score as the chalk at this course/distance July 21.
Race 10 (G2 Jim Dandy, 9f)
Primary - #2 TENFOLD, #5 Vino Rosso
Secondary - #1 Flameaway, #3 Reride, #4 Sporting Chance
Analysis: #2 Tenfold (8-5) is a fresh, lightly raced colt with upside for Steve Asmussen. The G1 Preakness show finisher projects a stalking trip. #5 Vino Rosso (1-1) followed up a breakthrough win in the G2 Wood Memorial with a ninth in the Kentucky Derby, and a fourth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes. He could easily run past these for John Velazquez/Todd Pletcher. #1 Flameaway (7-2) was a gem of consistency prior to the Kentucky Derby and G3 Ohio Derby. He won the Skidmore Stakes in the mud here last summer, and he looks like the controlling speed from the rail under Jose Ortiz. #3 Reride (12-1) won a couple of minor stakes races for Steve Asmussen at Delta Downs and Sunland Park earlier this year. After those races, he shipped to Dubai and finished a distant third in the UAE Derby. In his first start back in the U.S., he stalked the pace from post 12 and finished an even fifth in the Mystic Lake Derby on Canterbury's turf. He switches surfaces, attracts Irad Oritz Jr, and should be forwardly placed. #4 Sporting Chance (8-1) adds blinkers, and he won both of his local starts last summer including the G1 Hopeful. He reconnects with his winning rider Luis Saez and needs to get involved early.
Race 11 (OC-80k/1x, 9T)
Primary - #6 REVERSETHEDECISION
Secondary - #9 Nantucket Red, #7 Ferdinanda, #5 Sippin Kitten, #4 Frippery
Analysis: #6 Reversethedecision (5-2) showed a nice late kick in all three starts for Chad Brown, and she figures to love this distance. She exits a wide second from post 10 in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. #9 Nantucket Red (8-1) removed blinkers and looked good graduating in a Belmont turf route June 30. #7 Ferdinanda (7-2) is a neck and a nose away from a 4-for-5 turf record this year. #5 Sippin Kitten (8-1) fired exacta shots in her last three and graduated at 9.5 furlongs. #4 Frippery (10-1) followed up a debut turf route win with a 2nd at 23-1 in the Christiana Stakes at Delaware. Arnaud Delacour’s lightly raced filly has ability.
NYRA Bets Pick 5 Tickets (Races 7-11):