How to bet Saratoga's Whitney 2018 Pick 5 on a budget
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Updated: Overnight rains forced Saratoga to postpone two turf stakes and, in turn, axe the NYRA Bets Late Pick 5 on Saturday's Whitney Stakes card. The main track races remain carded, of course, so the handicapping below still applies. Read for more details on the changes.
Original: On Saturday at Saratoga, the New York Racing Association will offer its NYRA Bets Late Pick 5 featuring four stakes races and headlined by the Grade 1, $1.2 million Whitney Stakes. There is also a special Whitney day $500,000 single-ticket payout for the wager if you're the only player to hit it.
Saturday's Pick 5 sequence will start with an $85,000 maiden special weight dirt sprint for 2-year-olds, carded as Race 7 at Saratoga with a scheduled post time of 4:34 p.m., and runs through Race 11, the $100,000 Lure at 6:56 p.m.
The NYRA Bets Pick 5 will have a minimum bet of 50 cents, and once again I will use one of my favorite cost-effective Pick 5 wagering strategies, the spread ticket formula. It would cost $960 to lump all of my contenders on one ticket, but the spread ticket formula knocks the price down to a much more reasonable $76.
Here's how to bet on a budget:
Race 7 (MSW, 6f)
Primary - #2 JUSTICE OF WAR, #1 Fullness of Time/#1a Ahead of Plan
Secondary - #3 Cousin Pete, #7 Moon Colony, #9 Fabulous Fun
Analysis: #2 Justice of War (7-2) is a $550,000 Strong Mandate first timer for the productive Ricardo Santana Jr/Steve Asmussen team. Four of his nine published works were from the gate. #1 Fullness of Time (3-1) cost $270,000 and will go first out for Chad Brown with two July gate works at Saratoga, and he also saddles AE #1a Ahead of Plan, purchased for $475,000. #3 Cousin Pete (7-2) is a $320,000 debut runner for Todd Pletcher, and his last two training track moves were from the gate. #7 Moon Colony (8-1) is a $400,000 Uncle Mo colt for Mark Casse, and dam’s other four starters won (1 stakes winner). He shows three local breezes including a solid gate move July 21. #9 Fabulous Fun (5-1) is Phipps Stable/Shug McGaughey first timer. Distorted Humor is a solid win early sire, and dam’s other three starters won.
Race 8 (G1 Test, 7f)
Primary - #6 SEPARATIONOFPOWERS
Secondary - #3 Alter Moon, #8 Minit to Stardom, #2 Spectator
Analysis: #6 Separationofpowers (7-2) romped in her local debut last summer, and she was very impressive in the G1 Frizette as well. She stumbled at the start from the inside post and rallied for fourth in her G3 Victory Ride return, and she is the one to beat with a clean trip. She drew the rail in 3 of her 5 starts, and broke from post 13 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She lands a good post this time. #3 Alter Moon (4-1) exits back-to-back romps at Gulfstream, and Brown excels with new additions to his barn. She is 2-for-3 with a second at this distance. #8 Minit to Stardom (6-1) easily defeated lesser in all three shorter sprint starts. Her numbers jumped up in an optional claiming romp May 27 at Churchill Downs, and she might be this good. #2 Spectator (8-1) is 3-for-6 in sprints, and she might move up in her second New York outing for Michelle Nevin.
Race 9 (G1 Whitney, 9f)
Primary - #7 GOOD SAMARITAN, #2 Backyard Heaven
Secondary - #6 Diversity, #4 Mind Your Biscuits
Analysis: #7 Good Samaritan (12-1) tried to turn back in the G1 Met Mile July 9, but he was not quick enough to keep up with salty, extended sprinters that day. In a trio of graded tries at this distance, he shows two graded wins (won G2 Jim Dandy last summer) and a close second vs. graded foes. He might run past these under Jose Ortiz. #2 Backyard Heaven (9-2) earned quality numbers in his first two wins this year, including the G2 Alysheba. He flopped in the G1 Foster last time and might be able to bounce back for Brown. #4 Mind Your Biscuits (2-1) has the one-turn numbers to compete here, but the 5-year-old horse might not want to go this far. #6 Diversify (7-5) loves Belmont Park (won G2 Suburban last time and G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup in 2017), and he romped in the Evan Shipman at this course/distance last summer. He is always dangerous when he can get out there and dictate terms, and he drilled a local bullet for this July 29.
Race 10 (G3 Waya, 12f inner turf)
Primary - #2 MOM’S ON STRIKE, #5 Santa Monica
Secondary - #8 Lottie, #1 Homeland Security
Analysis: #2 Mom’s On Strike (3-1) stretched out to this distance and looked good winning the G3 Bewitch at Keeneland April 27. She exits a belated fourth in the G2 New York, and three runners from that heat were next-out stakes winners. Joe Sharp is 4-for-9 at the current stand. #5 Santa Monica (2-1) ran well in all three U.S. starts for Brown, including a tally in the G2 Dance Smartly June 30. She drilled a local turf bullet for this July 27. #8 Lottie (4-1) finished a nose in front of Santa Monica in the G2 Sheepshead Bay, and she was second (beaten 1/2 length) in this event last year. There is no pace in this race, and she might be the one to catch. #1 Homeland Security (5-1) exits a nice marathon win vs. lesser in the River Memories. She still has some upside for the productive IRad Ortiz Jr/Brown team.
Race 11 (Lure, 8.5T)
Primary - #6 BALLAGH ROCKS, #2 Ticonderoga
Secondary - #8 Voodoo Song, #3 Mr Cub, #9 Inspector Lynley, #7 Zennor
Analysis: #6 Ballagh Rocks (4-1) faced graded rivals in his last eight starts (8 1-1-2). Sharp turf rider Ortiz Jr. takes the call, and he seems perfectly spotted today. #2 Ticonderoga (5-1) rallied to just miss in his last optional claiming start at Belmont, and he also just missed in his career turf route debut at Saratoga in 2016 (Good Samaritan won that race). He likes this distance and will try to get involved late for Javier Castellano/Brown. #8 Voodoo Song (5-2) got loose in the Forbidden Apple last time, and he is 4-for-4 at Saratoga. They probably won’t get him if he shakes loose early, but sharp gelding #3 Mr Cub (12-1) has the ability to pressure him from the outset, and there are multiple pressers waiting to pounce. #9 Inspector Lynley (6-1) hit the board in his last three outings, and he won his lone local turf outing in the G3 Saranac in 2016. Look for him late under Jose Ortiz. #7 Zennor (5-1) won this race last and has not been seen since. He obvious has soundness issues, but he runs well fresh for Kiaran McLaughlin.
NYRA Bets Pick 5 Tickets (Races 7-11):
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