How to bet the Shoemaker Mile day late Pick 4 on a budget

Santa Anita Park carded a pair of graded stakes to bookend its Memorial Day Late Pick 4, and we'll look to close the holiday weekend on a winning note Monday.

Saturday's sequence begins with Race 7, the Grade 1, $400,000 Shoemaker Mile, with a scheduled post time of 6:46 p.m. ET, and concludes with Race 10, the Grade 2, $200,000 Monrovia Stakes for downhill sprinters.

The Pick 4 will have a minimum bet of 50 cents, and once again, I will use one of my favorite cost-effective wagering strategies, the spread ticket formula. It would cost $150 to lump all of my contenders on one ticket, but the spread ticket formula knocks the price down to a more reasonable $44. 

Race 7 (G1 Shoemaker Mile, 8T) 

Primary - #2 BOWIES HERO, #8 Next Shares

Secondary - #6 Heart to Heart, #1 Om

Comments: I have always liked #2 Bowies Hero (5-2), especially in flat mile turf races (9 6-1 at 8T). He is sharp, fresh, and should be finishing under Nakatani. #8 Next Shares (6-1) might be good for at least a piece of this. Bejarano was aboard for a pair of local stakes placings earlier this year, and he checked in right behind Bowies Hero in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile. #6 Heart to Heart (2-1) caught favorable pace scenarios in his last two front-running grade one turf stakes wins. He has always been dangerous when left alone early, but the early lead might belong to #1 Om (5-1) in this one. The latter beat some of these in the G3 Thunder Road, and his key to success that day was a very aggressive rider by Prat. I would like to see his new rider Talamo send from the hedge. 

Race 8 (OC-16k/1x, CA-bred, 5.5f)

Primary - #4 WANDERING PATROL, #2 Wonderful Lie

Secondary - #3 Donut Girl

Comments: #4 Wandering Patrol (3-1) was a sharp debut winner April 1, and two runners behind her were next-out winners. #2 Wonderful Lie (5-2) was nabbed out of her last by claiming artist Miller, and Elliott was winning races with this barn in the not too distant past (32% combo in 2017-18). #3 Donut Girl (8-1) is lightly raced and has room for development. The other four entrants exit the same slow local heat.

Race 9 (Mcl-20k, 6.5f)

Primary - #10 HELOISE, #9 Purdue

Secondary - #1 Pulpitinthesky, #5 Smart Rachel, #4 Bragging Rights

Comments: #10 Heloise (4-1) has a steady, slow work pattern with no gate moves. Strong dirt sprint trainer Cerin can strike with a first timer, and apprentice Espinoza is 4-for-7 with this outfit. #9 Purdue (8-1) took action, broke slow, and ran last in her local $50k bow. She fired a gate bullet for this May 25, and Elliott is 5-for-16 with Truman. Tab for improvement. #1 Pulpitinthesky (6-1) makes multiple changes including a class drop and surface switch (Glatt shows +ROI turf/dirt). #5 Smart Rachel (5-1) showed marked improvement second time out. #4 Bragging Rights (3-1) is 0-for-6 with four minor awards. She is a threat in a below par heat. 

Race 10 (G2 Monrovia, 6.5T) 

Primary - #9 COMPELLED, #3 Belvoir Bay

Secondary - #6 Ancient Secret, #1 Coniah, #4 Blame It On Alphie

Comments: #9 Compelled (5-1) turned back and finished full of run in a 5.5f turf stakes win at Fair Grounds on Feb 13. Once again, she cuts back in distance, and Van Dyke wins races with Proctor. No knocks on chalk #3 Belvoir Bay (2-1). She won both of her downhill stakes starts this year, and she used different tactics each time. Espinoza takes over for recently injured rider Baze. 

SA Late Pick 4 Spread Tickets (races 7-10, Total Cost - $44):