DeRosa: How to bet Queen's Plate day guaranteed pools

Toronto

The 13-race Queen's Plate card on Sunday at Woodbine is the first I can remember that features more Pick 5s than Pick 4s, with a trio of the former wager and only a pair of the latter.

Regardless, all five sequences feature a guaranteed pool. The full-card action commences at 12:25 p.m. EDT with the first of three Pick 5s beginning race 2 with a guaranteed pool of $100,000. Then there is a Pick 4 starting with race 4, a Pick 5 with race 6, a Pick 5 with race 9, and a Pick 4 to close things out with race 10 – the Queen's Plate.

Here is my grid mapping out potential plays throughout the day. These are competitive races, so there's a lot of horses on the grid. In other words, "horses who can win." This is a starting point. Do not use this to just play all the As and Bs or two As with one B, etc. Watch the board, and toss short prices when deep, lean on long-priced As, etc.

The middle Pick 5 (races 6-10) very much has my attention as my trio of A tabs in races 6 and 8 (legs 1 and 3, respectively) are all prices. That 3-by-3 double turns the other three legs into a $1.80 Pick 3. I do think Crystal Cliffs and Moira are the most likely winners in races 9 and 10, respectively, but being lean earlier with potential separator horses will allow me to play some combos where only one of them has to win.

That's good news because, particularly in the Queen's Plate, there are alluring prices. That's my way of saying I think Crystal Cliffs is the more likely winner. I'd love to be live to a bunch there. I've decided to leave off Rondure for the most part because of the seven weeks off and lack of a race at 1 1/8 miles. He'll be on the backest of backups, because if I get $20 winners home in races 6 and 8 along with Crystal Cliffs in race 9, then Rondure can still close a nice Pick 5.

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