DeRosa: How to bet Horseshoe Indianapolis turf racing
Don't touch that simulcast signal, we are ON THE TURF Wednesday at Horseshoe Indianapolis!
After several OFF THE TURF days, the Indianapolis-area oval is ready to return to the sod on Wednesday as part of its 9-race card. The two turf races go as races 6 and 8, making them integral to the late Pick 5.
Before we get into selections, let's take a look at how the turf typically plays in Shelbyville, starting with our Track Trends Tool for all turf routes in 2021.
If one were to draw any conclusion from the above, I suppose it's that inside closers do well, which I extrapolate to mean that they save ground and come running.
Which jockeys perform well on the HI turf? Unquestionably the two best over the last five years in terms of value to bettors have been Sammy Bermudez and Declan Cannon. Both sport positive HRN Impact scores and positive ROI on the mounts.
Marcelino Pedroza has the best win percentage among jockeys with at least 100 turf starts since 2017, and that's good enough for a positive Impact score as well. Deshawn Parker and Fernando De La Cruz win a lot of races (about 16 percent each) but are overbet.
The entrant who stood out most to me today was No. 11 Guana Kay in race 6. At 8-1 on the morning line this one might not take too much action anyway, but based on sire data if there is improvement today it won't be because of any paternal influence.
So who do we like in today's turf tilts?
In race 6, the aforementioned Bermudez is drawn inside aboard Fireside Kitten, who gets back on turf for trainer Kim Hammond. This is a must-use for me every which way.
In race 8, #10 Treasure Hunting makes his turf and two-turn debut. With trainer Tom Amoss legging up apprentice Rene Diaz, I like the weight break on the stretchout.