Find value in Aqueduct's $84,000 double Pick 6 carryover

The Pick 6 went unsolved yet again on Friday when one of three horses uncovered in the final race won, triggering a double carryover of more than $84,000 into Saturday's card. Starting in race 5, the $1 minimum Pick 6 features 3 state-bred stakes races. 

In the opening leg, the Horses to Single Report suggests that No. 6 Sheriff Bianco (7-5 morning line) is the one to lean on. Three singles are actually offered throughout the Pick 6, but this is the one I can get on board with. Having run on turf for much of his career, his last two dirt starts have both been wins and he's run his best Beyer speed figures to date. 

If you're looking elsewhere, No. 7 Twelth Man (5-1) returns off a freshening since May and No. 2 Mauritius (8-1) goes out for the Rob Atras barn for the first time, a move that he's successful with 23 percent of the time. Twelth Man's trainer, Michelle Nevin, has a 23 percent success rate with horses returning off 180+ day layoffs. These would be two alternatives I'd consider underneath or on other tickets. 

In race 6, the lone debut starter is No. 7 Abstract (10-1) for trainer Todd Pletcher. First-Timer Power Ratings rank Abstract as a 4, with the highest ranking being a 5. 4s are winning 15 percent of the time, so this one is worth including at a price. 

Both No. 2 Summer Cause (3-1) and No. 3 Tapit Trice (2-1) are tough to ignore off of their debut efforts in the same race, finishing second and third respectively. No. 6 Slip Mahoney (7-2) will likely be on many tickets as well.

Another price to consider outside these logicals is No. 9 Mercante (15-1) for trainer Bill Mott. He adds blinkers, a move Mott is successful with 24 percent of the time. Added distance should suit him and he is a half brother to West Coast. 

Horses to Single is fond of No. 1 Les Bon Temps (8-5) in race 7, the New York Stallion Series Stakes, but this is one I'll try to beat. Her last race wins here, but that was a bit of an anomaly from her prior four races when she upset at 13-1 in the Maid of the Mist Stakes. 

She is the top Power Pick as well, but the ones on my ticket will be those rounding out the top 4 in No. 3 Forces Sweetheart (9-2), No. 4 Midtown Lights (7-2), and maiden No. 10 Fema Funds (10-1), who should be in front early according to the Pace Report.

Race 8, the Alex M Robb Stakes, will be run at 1 mile. According to the Post Position Bias Report, the gates with the highest win rates overall are 5 and 8. As I'm not convinced of how good No. 5 Barese (5-2) actually is, I would single No. 8 Dr. Blute (7-2). 

In form lately since switching to the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn, Dr. Blute looks to win three in a row. I like the slight cutback in distance for him from the 1 1/8 miles last out since things were getting pretty desperate at the finish line, and while there appears to be other speed on paper, he could be in front early as he was for his last two races. 

The suggested single in race 9 is No. 11 Vacation Dance (3-1), but others seem more appealing at better prices than a horse trying the dirt for the first time. Two debut runners try stakes company for their first races, and First-Timer Power Ratings ranks No. 10 Laurel Valley (8-1) as a 4. No. 7 Incantation (30-1) is a 2. 

No. 4 General Banker (10-1), No. 5 Zapruder (10-1), No. 8 Lifetime of Chance (6-1), and No. 10 Laurel Valley (8-1) will all be on my radar. 

Two-year-olds close the sequence as well in race 10. No. 4 Joyful Ghost (5-2) makes several changes for a hot barn, such as dropping to the claiming ranks, switching from turf to dirt, and putting blinkers on. Trainer Linda Rice has solid stats with maiden second time starters, going from maiden special weight company to maiden claiming, and turf to dirt switches. 

No. 7 Two Chuckles (6-1) makes his third start and had some trouble at the gate last out. Prior to that, he was in a fairly salty maiden race won by D'ont Lose Cruz where Mariachi finished second. This may be a more realistic level for Two Chuckles if he can break better. No. 8 Weyhill Farm Rd. (9-2) is also in for the tag for the first time and will (hopefully) get a dry main track for the first time as well. 

Looking past the entry which doesn't interest me, these three alternatives are the next three in line for Charting Horse Value.