How to Win The 2016 BCBC - Two Different Strategies
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
In Part II of my recap of the 2016 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC), I wanted to provide two recaps from two very successful contest players who not only both finished in the top ten in the 2016 BCBC, but were also final table participants and top ten finishers in the 2016 NHC! Clearly Charlie Davis and Dave Gutfreund are no strangers to success. The path they took to victory in the BCBC was quite different, especially their approach to the final race.
Charlie Davis: 2nd: Bankroll $61,505+$200,000 Prize
In what goes down of one of the most remarkable come backs, Charlie went from $1,000 after day one all the way to winning $262,000 by the end of day two. Below is a recap provided by Charlie:
“I only had one entry so my plan was to build my bankroll on day 1 so I’d have plenty of money to hammer Champagne Room in all of the pools. Unfortunately, that plan didn’t go so well.
The race after I informed Garett that $600 and not $500 was the race minimum to qualify for a mandatory race, I made the same mistake. I must have fat fingered a ticket because I only bet $540. I didn’t hit a winner all day, and was ready to go all in on Curlina. I ended up betting $3,500 instead of the full $4,500 remaining bankroll thanks to some excellent advice from Garett Skiba and Emily Gullikson. That race obviously didn’t work out in my favor so I was left with $1,000 going into day 2. I think an important take away here is to always be willing to take advice from knowledgeable people.
I wanted to have more than $1,000 to bet ... So I sat on my $1,000 and bet it to win on Champagne Room.
I wanted to have more than $1,000 to bet so was going to bet some of the early races to again build my bankroll. More good advice talked me out of that. So I sat on my $1,000 and bet it to win on Champagne Room. A $69.20 payout resulted in a $34,600 bankroll, which gave me something to work with! Champagne Room was a standout for me because I’ve watched her races very closely since I know her owner. I hated the ride she got in her last, and knew she was sitting on a big one. I was just fine going broke on that race if she finished 2nd.
I lost some races, won a few, and went into the Classic with $32,835 in 15th. I’ve been against Arrogate all this time and didn’t think he’d be able to match his last race. That being said, I figured he and Chrome were it from the win side. I went and bet around $3,000 in exotics mostly Chrome/Arrogate/Frosted & Keen Ice. Played some with the top 2 reversed as well. Bankroll was around 30K.
I needed to bet big,I needed to trust all the work I’ve put in prior to today...
I went back to my seat and told Garett not to share his bets yet because I was going to bet more. The Optix EQ trip notes I use said that the last race took a lot out of Chrome and he was likely to be a step below his best, and my database had a strong model that I normally bet blind on Arrogate. At that point I realized that to have any chance to win, I needed to bet big,I needed to trust all the work I’ve put in prior to today, and I needed to ignore my personal opinion. I ended up with a $10K win bet on Arrogate, and a $28K total profit on the race including the exotics.
Seeing how the winner bet the last race taught me a great lesson though. Betting $10K to win was very foolish in retrospect. I thought it was a 2 horse race, why not bet a $10K exacta? Lesson learned, and that’s always a good thing."
Dave Gutfreund: 6th: Bankroll $40,047+$20,000 Prize & NHC
“On Day 1, the plan was to play mins and come back Saturday w/ammo to fire on what passes as my 'opinions' these days. Being in the Eddie Logan Suite on Thursday, I noticed Doug O'Neill's barn heating up with a couple of winners and decided to play a 10-1 in a prelim race and was fortunate to start the contest with a $200 WPS bet. This insured I'd come back on Day 2 with more than I started with. Whiffed on the 4 BC races, and was leaving the track before finale, but had an idea and made an extra play on a 36-1 winner with $300 to win, but missed the Exacta with the other $300 wagered.
I noticed Doug O'Neill's barn heating up with a couple of winners...
I came back on Day 2 and had no intention of ever losing my entire $19,000 bankroll. My 3 'opinions' were in the Sprint, F+M Sprint, and Mile. Lost minimums on 2 prelims and had just over $17K before Sprint. Decided to use some 'poker tricks' and realized before the Sprint making big bet on Masochistic...that the harm done if losing was greater than good from winning. So I was very fortunate to lose minimum there.
In the F+M Sprint, had strong view on eventual winner Finest City. However, while in paddock and looking at 6-1/7-1 odds for her on the tote board was discouraging. Really thought she'd be at least 10-1. Sometimes, everything can't be as optimal as we'd like. Had put myself into a corner and if I didn't go for it there, there weren't too many other options. Thought about switching to exotics from win bet. Ended up making $3,600 win bet at 8.7-1 and played $1,500 into failed Exactas.
This got me up to 3rd on standings with 2 races left. My 'opinion' on the Mile was to try and hit Exacta w/Tepin out of mix. Of the 3 main horses in my mind....Limato, Ironicus, Tourist...latter was clearly the value of the trio. However, there was a pretty narrow gap from 3rd to 9th at this time. Decided to bet small (not much over min) and focus on combos with Tourist, who ended up on about 85-90% on my tickets. No bueno with Tepin rallying for 2nd.
Dropped to 7th entering Classic. Was reasonably sure 3 of 6 in front of me were going to fire big for various reasons. Had no strong gambling-worthy view on race which appeared to be more sporting event than gambling opportunity. Between bankroll and prize pool equity, decided to pass and ended up going back up to 6th from 7th.”
-- By: Garett Skiba, BCBC 2013 $100K WINNER
Read More
Santa Anita has been run by families like the Strubs and the Stronachs, and there was a real-estate...
The Stronach Group’s push to get Gulfstream Park’s racing and slot-machine licenses decoupled took the form of a...
This week's Prospect Watch features young horses with elite bloodlines making their debuts across the U.S. during the...
Talk about going out in style. Post Time not only won the final race of his career Saturday,...
The Thoroughbred Racing Initiative has completed a feasibility study of Florida's Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry as a...