BC 2021: In which races is a last-out win most important?

What is it about the hot hand that lures bettors to follow it? It is like a moth to a flame. That is especially true with the Breeders’ Cup, where history is not so kind to that angle.

Research on behalf of Horse Racing Nation and VSiN unearthed a clear picture of all the Breeders’ Cup winners since the inaugural year 1984. When it comes to banking on horses that finished first in their last prep, it may as well be the flip of a coin.

The numbers don’t lie.

* Of the 360 winners, 189 finished first in their last prep before the championships. That is 52.2 percent. Measuring that just since 2000, it was 129 of 247, or 52.5 percent, so the trend has been constant for generations.

* In dirt races, including the two years on a synthetic main track at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009, 56.1 percent of the Breeders’ Cup winners (124 of 221) came in off a victory.

* In turf races, it was more likely that the championship winners did not finish first in their most recent previous races. Only 46.8 percent (65 of 139) scored in their final prep.

* Two-year-olds who earned Breeders’ Cup trophies won 65.2 percent (73 of 112) of their last races beforehand.

So what are bettors to make of this? The easy answer is not to put so much weight on horses that show up next month coming off a victory this weekend in 11 of the last 12 Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series races, nine of which are at Keeneland between Friday and Sunday.

Losers become long-shot winners

In 2017, the only previous time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Del Mar, eight of the 13 winners finished up the track in their last races beforehand. For instance, Stormy Liberal finished eighth in the Jaipur (G3) at Belmont Park before he scored at 30-1 in the Turf Sprint, a race in which he would be a repeat winner for trainer Peter Miller the following year at Churchill Downs. Bar of Gold finished sixth in the Keeneland slop as the Spinster (G1) favorite before cutting back to win at 66-1 at Del Mar in the Filly & Mare Sprint.

The biggest turnaround for a Breeders’ Cup winner was in 2014, when Karakontie finished a troubled 11th in the Prix de la Forêt (G1) in Paris the month before he broke through at Santa Anita with a 30-1 upset in the Mile.

As hard as it is to believe these days, bettors have not always swayed by the sour taste of a bad, last impression. Midnight Lute arrived at the 2008 championships off a 10th-place finish as an odds-on favorite two months earlier in the Pat O’Brien Handicap (G2) at Del Mar. The ride he got that day from the late Garrett Gómez left something to be desired, and bettors forgave them. Looking for a repeat in the Sprint, Midnight Lute went off as a 5-2 second choice and earned trainer Bob Baffert one of his 17 Breeders’ Cup trophies.

Europe’s also-rans find U.S. success

One horse expected over from Europe next month is a case in point that winning isn’t everything in the final weeks before the championships. Audarya finished third last year in the Prix de l’Opéra (G1) at soggy ParisLongchamp before she was flown to the dry ground at Keeneland to win the Filly & Mare Turf. It was wet again in Paris on Sunday, when Audarya finished fourth in the Opéra. If she were to go to Del Mar and put up a successful defense, it would mark the 15th time in 23 runnings of the race that the winner did not finish first in her final prep beforehand.

Tarnawa also could double down on making that case this fall. Last year she swam to victory in the Opéra before she thrived on the firm going at Keeneland and won the Turf. Last weekend she was a game second to 71-1 long shot Torquator Tasso in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1). Now she is a 5-2 futures favorite to repeat in the U.S.

The fact that last-out losers more often win the grass races in the Breeders’ Cup might pay more than lip service to an oft-stated truism. It has been said that European horsemen believe that do not have to send their best horses to win in the Breeders’ Cup. The list proving the point is not short. Talismanic, Highland Reel, Expert Eye, Iridessa, Queen’s Trust, Perfect Shirl, Midday and, yes, Karakontie were never champions, but their owners took home big checks written in U.S. dollars.

Some divisions are different

It is the opposite with 2-year-olds, and it seems easier to explain why so many of those Breeders’ Cup winners have built on their modest winning streaks. Owners and trainers are less likely to forgive a loss for a fledgling 1-for-2 horse than they are for an older one that is 6-for-8. Juveniles have less room for error if they are to make the grade in the eyes of horsemen trying to separate contenders from pretenders at that age.

There are two divisions that really stand out when it comes to recency bias meaning almost nothing. In the Turf Sprint, only 3 of 13 winners finished first in their last preps. California Flag (2009), Regally Ready (2011) and Stormy Liberal (2018) were the only ones who used the Breeders’ Cup to run their winning streaks to at least two. With 11 of the 13 winners coming from North American stables, it could be a sign Europeans are not interested in the mere $1 million purse. There is also the fact that seven Turf Sprint winners successfully cut back after losses at longer distances.

Then there is the oft-maligned Dirt Mile, impertinently seen as a refuge for horses that could not cut it in the Classic. Maybe that explains why 10 of its 14 winners came in off losses. It was 10 of 12 before Spun to Run parlayed a minor-stakes score at Parx Racing into a victory in 2019 at Santa Anita. Then there was Knicks Go, an allowance winner right before his triumph last year at Keeneland, where trainer Brad Cox could do no wrong during a four-win weekend.

Knicks Go might prove to be a glaring exception, since he is the futures favorite to finish first in next month’s $6 million Classic. Otherwise, the idea that a hot hand is necessary for winning a Breeders’ Cup race does not hold up against the test of history.

It might as well be a game of rock paper scissors.