How may Bob Lewis, Holy Bull, Withers translate to Derby?
Baseball in the last six years has become a hit-or-miss game. Home runs and strikeouts reached levels that had not been seen before. Each at-bat is like an all-or-nothing proposition.
When it comes to Kentucky Derby preps, the Grade 3, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes has turned into modern-day baseball.
The 1 1/16-mile race that will be run Sunday at Santa Anita has struck out three times in the last four years when it failed to produce Derby starters. But last year was a home run, what with the late Medina Spirit finishing first and Hot Rod Charlie both at Santa Anita and at Churchill Downs.
Of the three Derby preps being run this weekend, the Bob Lewis has punched above its weight. Since I’ll Have Another’s victory in both races in 2012, it has graduated five horses who have finished in the money in Louisville. Since it was restricted to 3-year-olds starting as the 1965 Santa Catalina Handicap, it also produced Derby winners Ferdinand in 1986 and Charismatic in 1999, making it the most productive of the current 10-4-2-1 points preps held after Jan. 1.
The Holy Bull (G3), which began at Gulfstream Park in 1990 as the Preview Stakes, has produced three Derby winners – but none since Barbaro in 2006. In its short history as a wintertime prep, Withers (G3) has sent only nine horses from Aqueduct to the Derby with Revolutionary’s third-place finish being the best at Churchill.
The Holy Bull and the Withers, also 10-4-2-1 races, will be renewed Saturday.
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)
Santa Anita’s reputation for producing accomplished speed horses has been exemplified by the style of this race’s winners. Four of the last nine, including Medina Spirit last year, led from gate to wire. No one has come from more than 3 1/2 lengths behind to win the race since Pioneerof the Nile made a deep-closing run in 2009.
These were the Bob Lewis winners since 2000 with their place and lengths behind at each call, according to Equibase.
Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Medina Spirit | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2020 | Thousand Words | 5 - 1 3/4 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2019 | Mucho Gusto | 3 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 2 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2018 | Lombo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2017 | Royal Mo | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2016 | Mor Spirit | 3 - 3 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 1 |
2015 | Dortmund | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 2 - 1 | 1 |
2014 | Candy Boy | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 |
2013 | Flashback | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2012 | I'll Have Another | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2011 | Anthony's Cross | 2 - 2 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2010 | Caracortado | 3 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
2009 | Pioneerof the Nile | 6 - 7 | 6 - 7 | 6 - 4 | 5 - 2 3/4 | 1 |
2008 | Crown of Thorns | 3 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2007 | Great Hunter | 8 - 5 1/4 | 8 - 4 3/4 | 6 - 3 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
2006 | Brother Derek | 3 - 1/2 | 3 - hd | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2005 | Declan's Moon | 3 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 3 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 |
2004 | St Averil | 4 - 1 3/4 | 5 - 2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
2003 | Domestic Dispute | 6 - 8 | 6 - 12 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 2 - 2 | 1 |
2002 | Labamta Babe | 4 - 2 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
2001 | Millennium Wind | 3 - 3 1/2 | 3 - 4 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
2000 | The Deputy | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
The front-running profile that has been tattooed into the Bob Lewis has shown up more often than not in the 27 horses who wound up in the Kentucky Derby since 2000. They are shown here with their Quirin Speed Points; E and E/P designate horses that are forward through most of the race, P and S are off the pace and toward the rear.
Year | Horse | Quirin | RBL | Derby |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Medina Spirit | E 7 | 1st | 1st |
Hot Rod Charlie | E/P 3 | 3rd | 3rd | |
2020 | ||||
2019 | ||||
2018 | ||||
2017 | Irap | E/P 6 | 2nd | 18th |
2016 | Mor Spirit | P 3 | 1st | 10th |
2015 | Firing Line | E/P 8 | 2nd | 2nd |
Dortmund | E 8 | 1st | 3rd | |
2014 | Chitu | E/P 8 | 2nd | 9th |
Candy Boy | E/P 4 | 1st | 13th | |
2013 | ||||
2012 | I'll Have Another | E/P 7 | 1st | 1st |
Rousing Sermon | S 0 | 3rd | 8th | |
Liaison | P 2 | DNF | 6th | |
2011 | ||||
2010 | American Lion | E/P 8 | 3rd | 11th |
2009 | Pioneerof the Nile | E/P 5 | 1st | 2nd |
Papa Clem | E/P 5 | 2nd | 4th | |
2008 | ||||
2007 | Great Hunter | P 3 | 1st | 13th |
Sam P. | E/P 6 | 2nd | 9th | |
Tiago | P 1 | 7th | 7th | |
2006 | Brother Derek | E 8 | 1st | 4th |
2005 | Going Wild | E 7 | 2nd | 18th |
Spanish Chestnut | E 8 | 3rd | 16th | |
2004 | Master David | E/P 5 | 3rd | 12th |
2003 | Domestic Dispute | P 3 | 1st | 10th |
Scrimshaw | E/P 7 | 3rd | 11th | |
2002 | ||||
2001 | Millennium Wind | E/P 6 | 1st | 11th |
2000 | The Deputy | E/P 5 | 1st | 14th |
High Yield | E 8 | 2nd | 15th | |
Captain Steve | P 3 | 3rd | 8th | |
E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
S - Sustainer (closer) |
This could bode well for Messier, trainer Bob Baffert’s Bob Hope (G3) winner who was a frontrunning second to Slow Down Andy in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Of course, Messier still would have to be moved to another trainer, since Baffert and his horses are ineligible for the Derby because of Medina Spirit’s drug positive after winning last year at Churchill Downs.
Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
Greatest Honour closed from 5 1/2 lengths back and passes six horses in the last half of the 1 1/16-mile race to win last year’s Holy Bull. In 2019, Harvey Wallbanger rallied from last to first for a 29-1 upset. They were the exceptions to the trend that showed 16 of the last 22 winners being close to or on the lead throughout the race. Even Winslow Homer, who was as far back as seventh before winning in 2010, was never more than two lengths behind.
Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Greatest Honour | 7 - 5 1/2 | 7 - 4 1/4 | 4 - 2 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
2020 | Tiz the Law | 3 - 1 | 4 - 2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2019 | Harvey Wallbanger | 9 - 10 | 9 - 9 1/2 | 6 - 5 | 3 - 3 | 1 |
2018 | Audible | 2 - 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2017 | Irish War Cry | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2016 | Mohaymen | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2015 | Upstart | 3 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2014 | Cairo Prince | 5 - 3 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 1 | 1 | 1 |
2013 | Itsmyluckyday | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
2012 | Algorithms | 2 - 3 | 3 - 5 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1* |
2011 | Dialed In | 9 - 10 3/4 | 9 - 6 1/2 | 5 - 4 | 5 - 2 1/4 | 1* |
2010 | Winslow Homer | 7 - 2 | 5 - 1 3/4 | 4 - 1 1/2 | 1 | 1* |
2009 | Saratoga Sinner | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
2008a | Hey Byrn | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 1 | 1*** |
2007 | Nobiz Like Shobiz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1* |
2006 | Barbaro | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1** |
2005 | Closing Argument | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1** |
2004 | Second of June | 4 - 3/4 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2003 | Offlee Wild | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 3 - 3 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 |
2002 | Booklet | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2001 | Radical Riley | 6 - 11 | 7 - 12 | 7 - 4 1/4 | 2 - hd | 1 |
2000 | Hal's Hope | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
a-April | ||||||
All others Jan./Feb. | ||||||
* 1 mile | ||||||
** 1 1/8 miles | ||||||
*** 1 3/16 miles | ||||||
All others 1 1/16 mi. |
Even though speed horses and stalkers have excelled in the Derby since the qualifying-points era began in 2013, that has not translated to Holy Bull graduates. In that time only Audible, third in 2018, and Tiz the Law, second in the COVID year of 2020, hit the board in the Derby.
Year | Horse | Quirin | HB | Derby |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | ||||
2020 | Tiz the Law | E/P 7 | 1st | 2nd |
2019 | ||||
2018 | Audible | E/P 4 | 1st | 3rd |
Enticed | P 3 | 4th | 14th | |
Free Drop Billy | P 2 | 2nd | 16th | |
2017 | Classic Empire | E/P 6 | 3rd | 4th |
Gunnevera | S 1 | 2nd | 7th | |
Irish War Cry | E/P 8 | 1st | 10th | |
2016 | Mohaymen | E/P 6 | 1st | 4th |
2015 | Frosted | E/P 4 | 2nd | 4th |
Keen Ice | S 1 | 5th | 7th | |
Frammento | S 0 | 6th | 11th | |
Upstart | E/P 7 | 1st | 18th | |
2014 | Wicked Strong | P 0 | 9th | 4th |
Intense Holiday | P 2 | 3rd | 12th | |
2013 | Itsmyluckyday | E/P 6 | 1st | 15th |
Frac Daddy | P 3 | 6th | 16th | |
2012 | Hansen | E 8 | 2nd | 9th |
2011 | Dialed In | S 2 | 1st | 8th |
Mucho Macho Man | E/P 6 | 4th | 3rd | |
2010 | Jackson Bend | E/P 5 | 2nd | 12th |
Homeboykris | E/P 6 | 5th | 16th | |
2009 | West Side Bernie | S 0 | 3rd | 9th |
2008 | ||||
2007 | Nobiz Like Shobiz | E 7 | 1st | 10th |
Scat Daddy | E/P 5 | 3rd | 18th | |
Sam P. | E/P 6 | 4th | 9th | |
2006 | Barbaro | E/P 7 | 1st | 1st |
Flashy Bull | E/P 5 | 4th | 14th | |
2005 | Closing Argument | E/P 4 | 1st | 2nd |
High Fly | E/P 6 | 3rd | 10th | |
2004 | Friends Lake | P 3 | 3rd | 15th |
2003 | Funny Cide | E/P 6 | 5th | 1st |
Offlee WIld | E/P 4 | 1st | 12th | |
2002 | Harlan's Holiday | P 3 | 2nd | 7th |
2001 | Songandaprayer | E 8 | 5th | 13th |
2000 | Hal's Hope | E 7 | 1st | 16th |
E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
S - Sustainer (closer) |
Mo Donegal, who raced in mid-pack on the way to winning the Remsen (G2), and Tiz the Bomb, who shifts back to dirt after finishing second last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, have tended to be mid-pack horses. Tiz the Bomb, though, led the whole way in breaking his maiden in an off-the-turf race last summer at Ellis Park.
Withers Stakes (G3)
What began as the old Withers Mile in 1874 at Jerome Park became a 1 1/8-mile prep for the Derby when it was moved to its current spot on the calendar in 2012. In the 10 runnings since, no Withers winner led from gate to wire. Five stalkers never more than two lengths off the lead wound up finishing first; the other five winners were mid-pack horses or closers.
Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Risk Taking | 6 - 4 1/2 | 6 - 4 | 4 - 3 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 |
2020 | Max Player | 6 - 3 1/4 | 5 - 1 3/4 | 6 - 3 | 3 - 1/2 | 1 |
2019 | Tax | 2 - 1 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1 |
2018 | Avery Island | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1 | 2 - hd | 1 | 1 |
2017 | El Areeb | 3 - 2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 3 - 2 | 1 | 1* |
2016 | Sunhy Ridge | 2 - 1 | 2 - hd | 2 - hd | 1 | 1* |
2015 | Far From Over | 6 - 7 1/2 | 6 - 10 1/2 | 6 - 9 1/2 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1* |
2014 | Samraat | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 2 - 1/2 | 1 | 1* |
2013 | Revolutionary | 6 - 3 3/4 | 8 - 4 3/4 | 7 - 3 3/4 | 4 - 2 | 1* |
2012 | Alpha | 4 - 2 1/2 | 4 - 3 | 3 - 1 1/2 | 1 - 4 | 1* |
* 1 1/16 miles | ||||||
1 1/8 mi. since 2018 |
No starter from last year’s Withers got to Louisville, but 2020 winner Max Player got there for the September running of the Derby and finished fifth. Of the nine horses who started in both the Withers and the Derby, Max Player was one of the six who were mid-pack runners or closers.
Year | Horse | Quirin | WIthers | Derby |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | ||||
2020 | Max Player | S 2 | 1st | 5th |
2019 | Tax | E/P 6 | 1st | 14th |
2018 | Firenze Fire | S 3 | 2nd | 11th |
2017 | J Boys Echo | P 2 | 3rd | 15th |
2016 | ||||
2015 | Tencendur | P 3 | 4th | 17th |
2014 | Samraat | E/P 6 | 1st | 5th |
Uncle Sigh | E 5 | 2nd | 14th | |
2013 | Revolutionary | S 3 | 1st | 3rd |
2012 | Alpha | P 5 | 1st | 12th |
E - Early (pacesetter) | ||||
E/P - Early presser (stalker) | ||||
P - Presser (mid-pack) | ||||
S - Sustainer (closer) |
Not mentioned in all this is the fact that many owners and trainers skip January and February preps, looking instead to the win-and-you’re-in Derby qualifiers that begin in a little more than two weeks. It is no coincidence the springtime running of the Florida Derby (G1) has produced 24 winners at Churchill Downs, the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct 20 and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) another 20.