How may Bob Lewis, Holy Bull, Withers translate to Derby?

Photo: Benoit Photo

Baseball in the last six years has become a hit-or-miss game. Home runs and strikeouts reached levels that had not been seen before. Each at-bat is like an all-or-nothing proposition.

When it comes to Kentucky Derby preps, the Grade 3, $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes has turned into modern-day baseball.

The 1 1/16-mile race that will be run Sunday at Santa Anita has struck out three times in the last four years when it failed to produce Derby starters. But last year was a home run, what with the late Medina Spirit finishing first and Hot Rod Charlie both at Santa Anita and at Churchill Downs.

Of the three Derby preps being run this weekend, the Bob Lewis has punched above its weight. Since I’ll Have Another’s victory in both races in 2012, it has graduated five horses who have finished in the money in Louisville. Since it was restricted to 3-year-olds starting as the 1965 Santa Catalina Handicap, it also produced Derby winners Ferdinand in 1986 and Charismatic in 1999, making it the most productive of the current 10-4-2-1 points preps held after Jan. 1.

The Holy Bull (G3), which began at Gulfstream Park in 1990 as the Preview Stakes, has produced three Derby winners – but none since Barbaro in 2006. In its short history as a wintertime prep, Withers (G3) has sent only nine horses from Aqueduct to the Derby with Revolutionary’s third-place finish being the best at Churchill.

The Holy Bull and the Withers, also 10-4-2-1 races, will be renewed Saturday.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)

Santa Anita’s reputation for producing accomplished speed horses has been exemplified by the style of this race’s winners. Four of the last nine, including Medina Spirit last year, led from gate to wire. No one has come from more than 3 1/2 lengths behind to win the race since Pioneerof the Nile made a deep-closing run in 2009.

These were the Bob Lewis winners since 2000 with their place and lengths behind at each call, according to Equibase.

YearWinner1/41/23/4StrFin
2021Medina Spirit11111
2020Thousand Words5 - 1 3/44 -   1 1/22 - hd11
2019Mucho Gusto3 - 1 1/22 -   2 1/22 - hd11
2018Lombo11111
2017Royal Mo11111
2016Mor Spirit3 - 3 1/23 -   23 - 1 1/23 - 11
2015Dortmund2 -    1/2112 - 11
2014Candy Boy4 - 24 -   24 - 1 1/23 - 1/21
2013Flashback11111
2012I'll Have Another2 - 1 1/22 -   1 1/22 - hd11
2011Anthony's Cross2 - 2 1/22 -   1 1/22 - hd11
2010Caracortado3 - 2 1/23 -   2 1/23 - 1 1/211
2009Pioneerof the Nile6 - 76 -   76 - 45 - 2 3/41
2008Crown of Thorns3 - 2 1/23 -   2 1/2111
2007Great Hunter8 - 5 1/48 -   4 3/46 - 3 3/411
2006Brother Derek3 -    1/23 - hd2 - hd11
2005Declan's Moon3 - 1 1/22 -   13 - 1/22 - hd1
2004St Averil4 - 1 3/45 -   23 - 1 1/23 - 1 1/21
2003Domestic Dispute6 - 86 - 124 - 2 1/22 - 21
2002Labamta Babe4 - 2 1/23 -   13 - 1 1/211
2001Millennium Wind3 - 3 1/23 -   4 1/23 - 111
2000The Deputy11111

The front-running profile that has been tattooed into the Bob Lewis has shown up more often than not in the 27 horses who wound up in the Kentucky Derby since 2000. They are shown here with their Quirin Speed Points; E and E/P designate horses that are forward through most of the race, P and S are off the pace and toward the rear.

YearHorseQuirinRBLDerby
2021Medina Spirit  E 71st  1st
 Hot Rod CharlieE/P 33rd  3rd
2020    
2019    
2018    
2017IrapE/P 62nd18th
2016Mor Spirit  P 31st10th
2015Firing LineE/P 82nd 2nd
 Dortmund  E 81st  3rd
2014ChituE/P 82nd  9th
 Candy BoyE/P 41st13th
2013    
2012I'll Have AnotherE/P 71st  1st
 Rousing Sermon  S 03rd  8th
 Liaison  P 2DNF  6th
2011    
2010American LionE/P 83rd11th
2009Pioneerof the NileE/P 51st 2nd
 Papa ClemE/P 52nd  4th
2008    
2007Great Hunter  P 31st13th
 Sam P.E/P 62nd  9th
 Tiago  P 17th  7th
2006Brother Derek  E 81st  4th
2005Going Wild  E 72nd18th
 Spanish Chestnut  E 83rd16th
2004Master DavidE/P 53rd12th
2003Domestic Dispute  P 31st10th
 ScrimshawE/P 73rd11th
2002    
2001Millennium WindE/P 61st11th
2000The DeputyE/P 51st14th
 High Yield  E 82nd15th
 Captain Steve  P 33rd  8th
 E - Early (pacesetter)   
 E/P - Early presser (stalker)   
 P - Presser (mid-pack)   
 S - Sustainer (closer)  

This could bode well for Messier, trainer Bob Baffert’s Bob Hope (G3) winner who was a frontrunning second to Slow Down Andy in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Of course, Messier still would have to be moved to another trainer, since Baffert and his horses are ineligible for the Derby because of Medina Spirit’s drug positive after winning last year at Churchill Downs.

Holy Bull Stakes (G3)

Greatest Honour closed from 5 1/2 lengths back and passes six horses in the last half of the 1 1/16-mile race to win last year’s Holy Bull. In 2019, Harvey Wallbanger rallied from last to first for a 29-1 upset. They were the exceptions to the trend that showed 16 of the last 22 winners being close to or on the lead throughout the race. Even Winslow Homer, who was as far back as seventh before winning in 2010, was never more than two lengths behind.

YearWinner1/41/23/4StrFin
2021Greatest Honour7 -   5 1/27 -   4 1/44 - 2 1/211
2020Tiz the Law3 -   14 -   22 - hd11
2019Harvey Wallbanger9 - 109 -   9 1/26 - 53 - 31
2018Audible2 -      1/23 -   2111
2017Irish War Cry11111
2016Mohaymen3 -   13 -      1/2111
2015Upstart3 -   1 1/22 -      1/22 - hd11
2014Cairo Prince5 -   34 -   1 1/23 - 111
2013Itsmyluckyday3 -   13 -   12 -    1/211
2012Algorithms2 -   33 -   52 - 1 1/211*
2011Dialed In9 - 10 3/49 -   6 1/25 - 45 - 2 1/41*
2010Winslow Homer7 -   25 -   1 3/44 - 1 1/211*
2009Saratoga Sinner2 -   12 -   12 -    1/211
2008aHey Byrn3 -   13 -   12 - 111***
2007Nobiz Like Shobiz11111*
2006Barbaro2 -   12 -      1/2111**
2005Closing Argument2 -      1/22 -   1 1/22 -    1/211**
2004Second of June4 -      3/42 -      1/22 - hd11
2003Offlee Wild3 -   13 -   13 - 32 -    1/21
2002Booklet11111
2001Radical Riley6 - 117 - 127 - 4 1/42 - hd1
2000Hal's Hope11111
 a-April     
    All others Jan./Feb.     
    * 1 mile     
  ** 1 1/8 miles     
 *** 1 3/16 miles     
      All others 1 1/16 mi.    

Even though speed horses and stalkers have excelled in the Derby since the qualifying-points era began in 2013, that has not translated to Holy Bull graduates. In that time only Audible, third in 2018, and Tiz the Law, second in the COVID year of 2020, hit the board in the Derby.

YearHorseQuirinHBDerby
2021    
2020Tiz the LawE/P 71st 2nd
2019    
2018AudibleE/P 41st  3rd
 Enticed  P 34th14th
 Free Drop Billy  P 22nd16th
2017Classic EmpireE/P 63rd  4th
 Gunnevera  S 12nd  7th
 Irish War CryE/P 81st10th
2016MohaymenE/P 61st  4th
2015FrostedE/P 42nd  4th
 Keen Ice  S 15th  7th
 Frammento  S 06th11th
 UpstartE/P 71st18th
2014Wicked Strong  P 09th  4th
 Intense Holiday  P 23rd12th
2013ItsmyluckydayE/P 61st15th
 Frac Daddy  P 36th16th
2012Hansen  E 82nd  9th
2011Dialed In  S 21st  8th
 Mucho Macho ManE/P 64th  3rd
2010Jackson BendE/P 52nd12th
 HomeboykrisE/P 65th16th
2009West Side Bernie  S 03rd  9th
2008    
2007Nobiz Like Shobiz  E 71st10th
 Scat DaddyE/P 53rd18th
 Sam P.E/P 64th  9th
2006BarbaroE/P 71st  1st
 Flashy BullE/P 54th14th
2005Closing ArgumentE/P 41st 2nd
 High FlyE/P 63rd10th
2004Friends Lake  P 33rd15th
2003Funny CideE/P 65th  1st
Offlee WIldE/P 41st12th
2002Harlan's Holiday  P 32nd  7th
2001Songandaprayer  E 85th13th
2000Hal's Hope  E 71st16th
 E - Early (pacesetter)   
 E/P - Early presser (stalker)   
 P - Presser (mid-pack)   
 S - Sustainer (closer)  

Mo Donegal, who raced in mid-pack on the way to winning the Remsen (G2), and Tiz the Bomb, who shifts back to dirt after finishing second last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, have tended to be mid-pack horses. Tiz the Bomb, though, led the whole way in breaking his maiden in an off-the-turf race last summer at Ellis Park.

Withers Stakes (G3)

What began as the old Withers Mile in 1874 at Jerome Park became a 1 1/8-mile prep for the Derby when it was moved to its current spot on the calendar in 2012. In the 10 runnings since, no Withers winner led from gate to wire. Five stalkers never more than two lengths off the lead wound up finishing first; the other five winners were mid-pack horses or closers.

YearWinner1/41/23/4StrFin
2021Risk Taking6 - 4 1/26 -   44 - 33 - 1 1/21
2020Max Player6 - 3 1/45 -   1 3/46 - 33 -    1/21
2019Tax2 - 13 -   1 1/23 - 211
2018Avery Island2 -    1/22 -   12 - hd11
2017El Areeb3 - 23 -   1 1/23 - 211*
2016Sunhy Ridge2 - 12 - hd2 - hd11*
2015Far From Over6 - 7 1/26 - 10 1/26 - 9 1/23 - 1 1/21*
2014Samraat2 -    1/22 -      1/22 -    1/211*
2013Revolutionary6 - 3 3/48 -   4 3/47 - 3 3/44 - 21*
2012Alpha4 - 2 1/24 -   3 3 - 1 1/21 - 41*
 * 1 1/16 miles     
   1 1/8 mi. since 2018    

No starter from last year’s Withers got to Louisville, but 2020 winner Max Player got there for the September running of the Derby and finished fifth. Of the nine horses who started in both the Withers and the Derby, Max Player was one of the six who were mid-pack runners or closers.

YearHorseQuirinWIthersDerby
2021    
2020Max Player  S 21st  5th
2019TaxE/P 61st14th
2018Firenze Fire  S 32nd11th
2017J Boys Echo  P 23rd15th
2016    
2015Tencendur  P 34th17th
2014SamraatE/P 61st  5th
 Uncle Sigh  E 52nd14th
2013Revolutionary  S 31st  3rd
2012Alpha  P 51st12th
 E - Early (pacesetter)   
 E/P - Early presser (stalker)   
 P - Presser (mid-pack)   
 S - Sustainer (closer)  

Not mentioned in all this is the fact that many owners and trainers skip January and February preps, looking instead to the win-and-you’re-in Derby qualifiers that begin in a little more than two weeks. It is no coincidence the springtime running of the Florida Derby (G1) has produced 24 winners at Churchill Downs, the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct 20 and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) another 20.

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