How unraced Baffert colt ended up with ‘shocking’ Derby odds

Since the Kentucky Derby Future Wager began in 1999, it had never offered an unraced betting option. That streak was broken in 2021, when Bezos, trained by six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, was made available in Pool 2 of the KDFW.

The Baffert effect seemed to have propelled Bezos to close at 26-1 in the Churchill Downs futures, taking in $7,172.68, putting him just outside the top 10 horses in the pool.

Baffert declined to say when the colt will debut. “I don't discuss my entries unless stakes,” he told HRN in a text message. “Sorry.”

[RELATED: See the ever-changing odds for 240 Kentucky Derby candidates]

The colt had a morning line of 20-1, which longtime oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said came from an unscientific process.

“I didn’t even pay that much attention, I just put him 20-1,” Battaglia said. “Anyone else I probably would have put 50.”

Battaglia, who said he is constantly surprised by the way the KDFW works out, was shocked when he heard Bezos would be made available to bettors.

“I said ‘You’re crazy,’ ” Battaglia said. “They said, ‘It’s Baffert.’”

For top horseplayer and analyst Jonathon Kinchen, the odds for Bezos were just too short. But he was not shocked that others thought differently.

“It’s shocking that he went off at that price,” Kinchen said. “It’s not the largest pool, so I think there’s obviously some opportunities to find some underlays and overlays. Would I bet the horse at 26-1? No, I wouldn’t bet the horse at 126-1. But am I surprised that people latched on to a Baffert horse that has never debuted as a flyer? No.”

Kinchen said he would like to see odds of at least 100-1 before he would consider betting an unraced horse, and Bezos does not particularly excite him as a Derby prospect. However, he sees why bettors would go for a colt like Bezos, a son of Empire Maker out of A P Mink by A.P. Indy. It all came back to his Hall of Fame trainer.

“I think that when it’s a Baffert horse it makes a little bit of sense,” Kinchen said. “I also think that ownership group — SF, Starlight, Madaket — it’s the same group that brought you Charlatan, brought you Authentic before the ownership interest adjustment, the same group that brought you Eight Rings.”

Beyond the pari-mutuel KDFW, futures on Derby horses also are available in Nevada. That is where Bezos — who last worked Monday, going five furlongs in 58.8 at Santa Anita — may be bet 15-1 at William Hill and 11-1 at Circa.

Those odds suggest the books have learned their lesson after a bettor took Triple Crown winner Justify at 300-1 in 2018 and won $150,000.

“I just don’t think they’re giving those odds anymore,” Kinchen said. “Especially for Bob Baffert.”

Beyond Baffert and ownership, Kinchen offered one more reason that the colt might be getting so much attention.

“His name might have something to do with it as well,” Kinchen said. “It’s a prominent, prominent name, one that people might think, ‘Oh, it could be something special.’ ”

Pool 3 of the KDFW is set to run Feb. 12-14.