How Mendelssohn's Euro tactics influenced the Travers Stakes

Last Saturday’s Travers Stakes was a race filled with story lines: European invader, a filly taking on the boys, and the established 3-year-olds in the post-Justify era.

What we ended up seeing was Catholic Boy winning the race with a slow final time. All winners that day at Saratoga posted rather fast times with the exception of the Travers.

Did the track slow down in that race? Was it watered? Was it dug? In my opinion, the Saratoga surface was not the main reason for the slow Travers time. What really happened is that European racing tactics dulled a major United States race.

When horses jumped out of the gate, Mendelssohn and Tenfold were the only two hustled to the lead by their jockeys. After about a furlong, Mendelssohn is clear and allowed to take the rail, while Catholic Boy’s rider, Javier Castellano, made a slight move to second without challenging Mendelssohn.

Once on the lead, Ryan Moore, Mendelssohn’s jockey, did what European jockeys are used to doing: He hit the brakes, and hit them hard. This is something we don’t see often in the U.S., but in European races it is the norm.

The lead horse hits the brakes, everyone gets bunched up behind him, and then he kicks for home about three furlongs out trying to steal the race on the front end. Ergonomically, this yields to under-performing and slow final times since, since opening quickly, slowing and then speeding up again takes a lot out of a horse.

I will try to support this claim using two different techniques: Sectional and visual analysis.

What do the sectionals say?

The following chart displays the sectionals (known as fractions in America) of three races run at Saratoga: The 2018 and 2016 editions of the Travers, and the 2018 Personal Ensign.

The sectional ratio is the result of the division of the individual sectional over the final time multiplied by 100. It is used to show how much above or below par that sectional was compared to the race’s average rhythm.

Arrogate’s Travers produced a very fast time. As you can see, each quarter is slightly slower than the previous one, with the exception of the final. This pace pattern is good for producing fast times since horses that run this type of race are not out of their comfort zone. Abel Tasman’s Personal Ensign follows a similar pattern. The first two quarters appear similar and then they slightly decrease, which is another pace pattern that can produce fast times.

The 2018 Travers pace pattern is a mess. The fastest quarter is by far the first one. It is even faster than the corresponding quarter of the Personal Ensign. The second fastest is the third, then the fourth. The second quarter is really slow and ranks only fourth. The final quarter was very slow for the winner and dead slow for the rest of the field. The very slow second quarter is a good indication for hitting the brakes. That pace pattern is ideal for producing slow final times.

What do the visuals say?

When visually analyzing a race, one has to keep an eye on the horses’ and jockeys’ body language. The brakes are hit about 300 meters into the race. Mendelssohn does not show any signs of reacting to it. He accepted it and slowed down just fine.

Catholic Boy’s jockey is obviously restraining his mount, and the horse seems to accept it. Good Magic, on the other hand, seems to react to the brakes. You can see how he turns his head and fights his jockey once slowed. The rest of the field gets stopped behind those.

The one horse that verifies what really happened is Gronkowski. He is one of these horses with low speed and lots of stamina. No matter his jockey’s urging, he won’t go fast early. Horses like Gronkowski are good candidates for pace yardsticks.

In his previous outing, the Belmont Stakes, he missed the break, dropped back, and followed the field from last some distance from the pace setter and the rest of the field. In the Travers he was urged by his jockey to try and lay closer. As can be seen from the race replay, despite the urging 300 meters into the race he is last, about 10 lengths from Mendelssohn.

Here is a picture about 300 meters into the race when Mendelssohn establishes the lead and just when Ryan Moore hits the brakes.

See where where Gronkowski is? See where Good Magic is? And then we went to this:

The tempo picked up down the backstretch. Catholic Boy confronted Mendelssohn, and through the far turn the field looked like this:

The opening quarter of the Travers was faster than the corresponding one of the Personal Ensign, and part of it was run with Mendelssohn slowing. Had the Travers field been allowed to gallop strongly throughout, they would have clocked fractions faster than 46.60 and 1.10.38 which is what the fillies did. No one knows whether they would have carried this speed for 1 1/4 miles.

Conclusions out of the Travers

Despite the fact that this year’s edition of the Travers qualifies essentially as a non-race for many of the contenders moving forward, some conclusions can be drawn from it.

Catholic Boy showed the ability to handle rhythm changes better than the rest. Turf horses usually display this trait, and being a turf horse (not implying he is a not a dirt horse as well) he managed to prevail. He chased Mendelssohn’s fast second half mile, passed him turning for home and won. Whether he can do in a hot pace is something we have to wait and see.

Mendelssohn showed that he cannot win U.S. graded races with slow fractions. He is not the fastest one out of the gate, but he is loaded with speed. He appreciated the lead, but he had to fight a lot to get it. His second half mile was strong enough to cook all the horses that chased him. Once he was asked to accelerate, he did it nicely and was able to put some distance between him and the chasing pack, with Catholic Boy the exception. He showed signs of losing interest after being passed but managed to finish second.

As far as the rest of the field is concerned, there is not much to say. They all got cooked behind Mendelssohn, but he had an unfair advantage over them. Wonder Gadot got blocked 300 meters into the race and had to be steadied through the first turn. Good Magic was just a length in front of Gronkowski entering the backstretch. The latter had to be steadied. Who would have thought before the race that half a mile into the race, Gronkowski would be facing traffic? Just draw a line through their Travers efforts and wait for the next one.

Pace patterns can determine how fast (or slow) the final time of the race winds up. The specific pace pattern of the Travers could not have produced anything faster than 2.01.76 on a track that looked to be playing fast. Even the final quarter of the race was slow, something you don’t expect in a slowly run race.

The horses spent much more energy in the first half mile of the race than the 47.76 sectional suggests. They followed that with a very fast second half mile, and two furlongs out they were all tired.

Congratulations to the winner one more time — and that’s about it for this year’s Travers Stakes.

Author Savvas Lopez is a horse racing researcher. The more he studies the sport, the more he loves it. Savvas spends his professional life developing business software, and his personal life developing horse racing software.