How Mattress Mack will bet $3 million on Kentucky Derby 2022

Mattress Mack already has some money tied up in Kentucky Derby 2022 futures bets on Smile Happy, the colt sired by his stallion Runhappy. That is not, however, where he will make his biggest wager on the May 7 classic.

As he did last year with Essential Quality, Texas businessman Jim McIngvale plans to make a seven-digit bet on the Derby favorite. Right now, that would be two-time Grade 2 winner Epicenter.

“Epicenter is certainly a live horse,” McIngvale told Horse Racing Nation on Monday night in a phone conversation from Houston. “He is getting lots of good P.R. right now. He is certainly a deserving favorite.”

But not a certain one. In Las Vegas futures, the Not This Time colt trained by Steve Asmussen is best priced at 5-1. Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Messier is 11-2, his stablemate and winner of that race Taiba is 13-2, and Blue Grass (G1) victor Zandon is 7-1.

See the 23 horses left in Vegas futures for Kentucky Derby.

With at least $3 million that he is ready to bet in person at Churchill Downs, McIngvale could singlehandedly determine who ends up being the post-time favorite in the mutuels.

“I going to bet early,” McIngvale said. “I’m going to bet often, and I will bet with both hands until I run out of money. I’m going to bet about $3 million to $4 million.”

One thing he said he would do when arrives on race day is look at where the money was bet the day before into the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double pool.

“I think smart bettors are betting there,” McIngvale said. “I’ll see who takes the most money there. There will be several factors involved. Obviously, post positions are very important. Pre-race workouts are a consideration. It’s a wide-open Kentucky Derby, and the favorite could be any of three or four horses.”

As was the case a year ago, and as with so many of his sports bets, McIngvale is tying in a promotion at his Gallery Furniture stores. Anyone buying a $3,000 mattress in the buildup to the Derby will be entitled to a full refund if McIngvale wins his bet. The promotion has the effect of a hedge. If he sells 1,000 mattresses, that would equal what he bets.

Not that McIngvale would necessarily pour all $3 million on Epicenter or whomever is the shortest-priced Derby horse.

“One of the considerations is what’s the least amount of money I can put on that favorite and still have him retain the favoritism,” he said. “A 4-1 payoff is obviously more than a 2-1 payoff. If some of these horses go off at 5-1, they’ll be pretty attractive to bet on to help make them the Kentucky Derby favorite and end up with a wager that pays 4-1.”

That is part of the reason McIngvale plans to make his big wager early on race day. That way, the odds will move and perhaps make the favorite less attractive, allowing his price to then drift through the afternoon.

“Last year I bet a little bit in the morning and a little bit in the early afternoon,” McIngvale said. “That way it didn’t affect the odds pool so much. It’s always an interesting strategy when you’re going to bet one-third of the win pool on the Kentucky Derby favorite and how to do it without destroying his odds.”

When he made what turned out to be a losing bet last year on Essential Quality, McIngvale wagered a total of $2.3 million.

“Last year on (Oaks) Friday we had the money wired into Churchill,” McIngvale said. “We arranged for (a friend) to bet a couple hundred thousand dollars if not $500,000 on Friday, which depressed the odds a little bit and made the other horses overlays at that time. We continued to do that throughout the day (Saturday).

“The idea is to bet enough on the favorite to where you make sure you have the favorite covered. Hopefully, the favorite wins, and (mattress) customers get their money back. But at the same time, it enables the other horses to be overlays, so the other horseplayers can go after those other horses and kind of settle down the odds.”

Just because he has zeroed in on Epicenter, Messier, Taiba and Zandon does not mean McIngvale is completely fading Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner Smile Happy, whom he bet in the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager all five times it was offered since last fall. He also has a bet on Runhappy in the Derby Sire Wager held last November.

“I’m definitely going to play Smile Happy with exactas and tris, and I’m going to bet Smile Happy to win as well,” McIngvale said. “My ideal outcome would be to have Smile Happy and the favorite to win in a dead heat.”

McIngvale is trying to build on a winning bet this month in New Orleans on the NCAA Tournament. He took the Kansas Jayhawks to beat North Carolina in the men’s Division 1 final, winning what he said was about $14 million as part of another Gallery Furniture promotion.

“That made up for some of my foibles,” he said, referring to more than $15 million in losses on the College Football Playoff championship and the Super Bowl.

McIngvale said he is considering a bet on Philadelphia to advance in the NBA Playoffs partly because of business from a former Houston Rockets star who plays now for the 76ers.

“James Harden bought a lot of furniture from me, so I’m kind of a James Harden aficionado,” McIngvale said. “We’ll see how they do and see if they can make a run and at least face Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals.”

Aside from that and a constant eye toward making baseball bets on his beloved Houston Astros, McIngvale said he will be “getting advice from a lot of people I know in Kentucky” about the Derby.

He also is hearing words of wisdom at home.

“I get a lot of advice from my wife not to do it,” he said. “But I’m going to do it.”

Through Runhappy, who stands at Claiborne Farm in Paris, Ky., McIngvale is a Horse Racing Nation sponsor.