Track Trends: How Keeneland played opening weekend
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Photo:
Eclipse Sportswire
The speed-favoring days of the Keeneland main track did not manifest during opening weekend 2022, as early speed won only 17 percent of sprints with no gate-to-wire winners of two-turn races.
Jockey Flavian Prat was most adept at reading the main track tea leaves, going 7-for-15, including winning the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) aboard Zandon. Interestingly, the recently transplanted-from-California rider went 0-for-6 on turf, but those seven dirt wins are enough for him to lead the jockey colony.
Looking at horses shipped to Keeneland, Gulfstream Park sent eight winners for opening weekend and Fair Grounds Race Course had six winners. None with a large sample size outrageously outran their odds, but Oaklawn Park shippers are notable for their futility, going winless from 23 tries.
What that means for week two remains to be seen, but both the run styles and the shipping trends are definitely worth watching, and I’ve seen enough to downgrade Oaklawn horses who will be among the favorites. That last point is key. Shipping in from Oaklawn is not enough to disqualify a 10- or 20-1 horse, but it’s a negative at a short price.
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