How Jerry Bailey sees the Pegasus World Cup unfolding

NBC analyst and retired Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey views Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup as an old-school match race between Knicks Go and Life Is Good. He said he would treat it accordingly if he was aboard either of the top two choices for the 1 1/8-mile contest.

“I don’t think there is a horse in there that is good enough to pick up the pieces even if they go 44 and 4,” said Bailey, referring to what would be a punishing opening half-mile.

[Saturday plays: One clear single in Pegasus World Cup pick 4]

As he sees it, the advantage went to defending champion Knicks Go and his rider, Joel Rosario, the instant they drew the rail. “He was going to the lead regardless. The fact that he drew the rail makes it easier for him to do what he does best, and that’s go out for the lead.”

Knicks Go and Rosario had everything their way in last year’s Pegasus. They shot to the lead and continued to extend their advantage through an opening quarter of 22.90 seconds, a half in 46.16 and three-quarters in 1:09.91 with 41-1 long shot Last Judgment applying the only pressure. The son of Paynter had so much left for the stretch run that Rosario geared him down in the final yards and prevailed by 2 3/4 comfortable lengths.

Life Is Good will never be mistaken for Last Judgment. Nothing will be comfortable against the commanding winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Bailey expects Irad Ortiz Jr. to be extremely aggressive aboard Life Is Good when they break from post 4.

“In situations like this, I’ve almost got to leave the gate intending to be on the lead because what if Knicks Go stumbles or doesn’t leave that quickly? Even if it’s a stride or two, that is the only opening Life Is Good needs, and then the advantage is all his,” Bailey said.

With the short run into the first turn at Gulfstream, positioning at that juncture will be critical. Bailey said he would want to be shoulder to shoulder and noted, “Anything short of that allows Knicks Go to float you out.”

If the pace should be so torrid that it looks to be unsustainable, Bailey thinks Life Is Good is at least a bit ratable and would be willing to back off slightly and take a couple of needed deep breaths. “Depending on the pace, that is a decision Irad is going to have to make in the middle of the race,” the Hall of Famer said.

Bailey emphasized, though, that any chance of defeating certain Horse of the Year Knicks Go in what will be his final start will depend on intense pressure being exerted on him throughout. “I do not see daylight between these two horses at any point in the race,” he said.

Bailey’s pick?

“These are the best two horses in the world on dirt. It’s hard to go against Knicks Go, who is the champion. But Life Is Good doesn’t have any chinks in his armor, either. He doesn’t have any flaws, and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him. We don’t know if he’s run to the fullest of his capabilities yet. I’m going to pick Life Is Good because I don’t know what his ceiling is. If I’m picking a horse, it’s by a neck.”

Bailey does not consider either Stilleto Boy or Sir Winston as a threat to win. He envisions them as the best of the rest, though.